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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-3426</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Slope stability modelling in Karongi district, Western Rwanda</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Barayagwiza</surname>
<given-names>Sylvain</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0007-7562-7907</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Meriaux</surname>
<given-names>Catherine A.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1683-8572</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Armigliato</surname>
<given-names>Alberto</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8058-0361</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>East African Institute for Fundamental Research/University of Rwanda, Kigali, Rwanda</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia &quot;Augusto Righi&quot;,Alma Mater Studiorum – Università di Bologna,Viale Berti Pichat 8, Bologna, 40127, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>These authors contributed equally to this work.</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>29</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>20</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Sylvain Barayagwiza et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3426/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3426/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3426/egusphere-2026-3426.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3426/egusphere-2026-3426.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The Karongi District in Western Rwanda is frequently subject to landslides. To date, however, physics-based slope stability assessments remain pending. In this study, we apply a three-dimensional Limit Equilibrium Method (LEM) using Scoops3D software to compute Factor of Safety (&lt;em&gt;FOS&lt;/em&gt;) distributions in Karongi District. The model evaluates the effects of the pore-pressure ratio (&lt;em&gt;ru&lt;/em&gt;) and horizontal pseudo-static seismic coefficient (&lt;em&gt;k&lt;sub&gt;eq&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/em&gt;) on slope stability. Results identify critical thresholds at &lt;em&gt;ru&lt;/em&gt; &amp;sim; 0.10 and &lt;em&gt;k&lt;sub&gt;eq&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/em&gt; = 0.075, beyond which unstable areas expand rapidly. When combined to pore pressure and at low pore pressure &lt;em&gt;ru&lt;/em&gt; &amp;le; 0.10, seismic loading can significantly amplify slope instability. Model validation using historical landslide inventories shows 80 % spatial agreement between simulated unstable areas (&lt;em&gt;FOS&lt;/em&gt; &amp;lt; 1) and observed landslides in two scenarios: (1) &lt;em&gt;ru&lt;/em&gt; = 0.18 and &lt;em&gt;k&lt;sub&gt;eq&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/em&gt; = 0.10; and (2) &lt;em&gt;ru&lt;/em&gt; = 0.35 and &lt;em&gt;k&lt;sub&gt;eq&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/em&gt; = 0.03. Although applied to the Karongi district, the methodology presented in this study can be used to assess the relative importance of pore pressure and seismic forcing in slope stability in a seismically active region prone to landslides.</p>
</abstract>
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