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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-3364</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Observation-based evaluation of the Destination Earth climate change adaptation digital twin simulations using OBSALL v1.0</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Järvinen</surname>
<given-names>Heikki</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1879-6804</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Räisänen</surname>
<given-names>Jouni</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3657-1588</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tuppi</surname>
<given-names>Lauri</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4673-382X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bouvier</surname>
<given-names>Clément</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2920-7585</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sanchez-Benitez</surname>
<given-names>Antonio</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2505-6014</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tyree</surname>
<given-names>Juniper</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7923-9609</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Toropainen</surname>
<given-names>Antti</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7274-3135</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Davini</surname>
<given-names>Paolo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3389-7849</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Doblas-Reyes</surname>
<given-names>Francisco</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6622-4280</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jung</surname>
<given-names>Thomas</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2651-1293</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Klocke</surname>
<given-names>Daniel</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kontkanen</surname>
<given-names>Jenni</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5373-3537</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Milinski</surname>
<given-names>Sebastian</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5216-4662</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Nurisso</surname>
<given-names>Matteo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5962-0680</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kesari Pradhan</surname>
<given-names>Himansu</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sandu</surname>
<given-names>Irina</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Bremerhaven, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Scienze dell’Atmosfera e del Clima (CNR-ISAC), Torino, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Department of Environment, Land and Infrastructure Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Hamburg, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>CSC – IT Center for Science, Espoo, Finland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Bonn, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>24</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>36</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Heikki Järvinen et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3364/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3364/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3364/egusphere-2026-3364.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3364/egusphere-2026-3364.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Destination Earth Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin (Climate DT) is setting up an operational simulation framework that enables to produce bespoke climate and impact-sector information, supporting evidence-based decision-making and fortified societal resilience. Climate DT combines global kilometer-scale climate models and a range on impact-sector applications in a unified operational workflow, producing both multi-decadal climate projections and storyline simulations at the scales of the impacts of climate change and extreme events. This imposes new demands for the evaluation of simulation quality. The question is, which reference data are adequate to evaluate the rich process-level variability present in these new-generation models. Here, we advocate the use of raw Earth observations for assessing physical fidelity of the modelled fine-scale variability, operating exclusively in the observation-space.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Climate DT framework (&lt;a href=&quot;https://platform.destine.eu/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;noopener&quot;&gt;https://platform.destine.eu/&lt;/a&gt;) enables unique evaluation of the simulation quality using Earth observations directly, as the model output data is available run-time in a near-native grid. This is in stark contrast to traditional model-space evaluation using archived simulations and gridded reference data. Climate DT simulations are evaluated in observation-space prior to any spatio-temporal truncation, exposing their process-level variability for inter-comparison with raw Earth observations and bridging the gap between modelling and observing the Earth system. The synergy aspect here is the extensive sharing of observation modelling infrastructure with data assimilation in numerical weather prediction.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article presents the Climate DT concept to assess simulation quality with Earth observations and showcase it through the lens of synoptic surface observations. The evaluation covers the simulated mean, trend, variability, and extremes of historic simulations from 1991 to 2014 of the IFS-NEMO, IFS-FESOM, and ICON models. Annual cycles of 2‑metre temperature, and (to a somewhat lesser extent) humidity and 10‑metre wind speed are generally well-simulated. However, these quantities contain also significant process-level weaknesses, such as too weak process level variability at diurnal, intramonth, and interannual time-scales. The evaluation results indicate that while there is still work to be done to improve the Climate DT simulation models, it is a novelty that they can now be examined at such level of detail and objectively interfaced with raw Earth observations containing the corresponding process-level imprints. Furthermore, since climate change adaptation mostly occurs at local level, the raw observation-based evaluation informs directly the scales of interest.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="36"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts</funding-source>
<award-id>DE_340</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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<back>
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