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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-3254</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Multi-Year Predictability of Hydrography and Circulation on the U.S. Northeast Shelf: A Dynamical Downscaling Perspective</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Guo</surname>
<given-names>Yiming</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8032-0685</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Castillo-Trujillo</surname>
<given-names>Alma Carolina</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>Ke</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kwon</surname>
<given-names>Young-Oh</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Perkins</surname>
<given-names>Sydney</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Seo</surname>
<given-names>Hyodae</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Fratantoni</surname>
<given-names>Paula</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Alexander</surname>
<given-names>Michael</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Saba</surname>
<given-names>Vincent</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geography, Geology and the Environment, Illinois State University, Normal, Illinois</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>atDepth Inc.</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>University of California, Berkeley, California</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>University of Hawai’i, Honolulu, HI, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA NMFS, Woods Hole, MA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>24</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>41</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Yiming Guo et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3254/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3254/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3254/egusphere-2026-3254.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3254/egusphere-2026-3254.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The U.S. Northeast Shelf (NES) is a dynamic and economically important marine ecosystem where temperature and salinity variability are shaped by interactions among large-scale climate variability, Gulf Stream shifts, mesoscale eddies, and local shelf processes. Predicting these variations on multi-year timescales remains a major challenge for current climate systems, as global models at typically 1&amp;ndash;2&amp;deg; resolution exhibit poor skills for the NES. Here, we evaluate a high-resolution regional prediction of NES based on the downscaling of global Community Earth System Model Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (CESM-DPLE) using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS-DOWN) to assess its potential for improving interannual-to-decadal prediction skill on the NES. Compared to CESM-DPLE, ROMS-DOWN substantially reduces mean-state biases in temperature, salinity, sea surface height, and upper-ocean heat content across the shelf and slope, where bathymetry effect and shelf-slope exchange are critical but poorly resolved in global models. Both deterministic and probabilistic metrics indicate improved forecast performance with lead time up to 5 years. The predictive skill reflects contributions from externally forced trends and interannual-to-decadal internal variability, with dominant timescales of predictability differing among variables. ROMS-DOWN also skillfully reproduces key shelf features such as the Middle Atlantic Bight cold pool and slope-water mixing characteristics in the Gulf of Maine, though their predictability remains moderate likely due to internal variability, boundary condition biases, and model uncertainties. Overall, these results demonstrate that dynamical downscaling can effectively bridge large-scale climate predictability and regional coastal processes, providing a foundation for improved multi-year prediction and understanding of ocean variability on the NES.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="41"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Climate Program Office</funding-source>
<award-id>NA20OAR4310482-T1-01</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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