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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-3075</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Systematic Observation-Based Estimate of Effective Radiative Forcing from Aerosol&amp;ndash;Cloud Interactions</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Roi-Cohen</surname>
<given-names>Omer</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0000-4385-0062</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hadary</surname>
<given-names>Gaea</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wall</surname>
<given-names>Casey J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7682-5576</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ceppi</surname>
<given-names>Paulo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3754-3506</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dagan</surname>
<given-names>Guy</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8391-6334</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>11</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>24</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Omer Roi-Cohen et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3075/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3075/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3075/egusphere-2026-3075.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3075/egusphere-2026-3075.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The change in Earth&apos;s energy budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols interacting with clouds is the most uncertain contributor to the historical energy budget trend, with important implications for future climate projections. Recent studies estimating the effective radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions (ERF&lt;sub&gt;aci&lt;/sub&gt;) using satellite observations and a Cloud-Controlling Factor (CCF) analysis have produced a large spread of results, ranging from approximately -0.3 to -1.5 Wm&lt;sup&gt;-2&lt;/sup&gt;. This spread is comparable to the full IPCC AR6 uncertainty range, reflecting the use of different datasets and methodological choices across studies, often without a systematic basis for selecting among them. Here we develop a unified framework to rigorously evaluate these methodological choices across multiple reanalysis datasets, using both climate model simulations and observed regional aerosol trends as independent validation tests. Applying model based bias-correction to the best configuration yields a best-estimate global ERF&lt;sub&gt;aci&lt;/sub&gt; of -0.84 Wm&lt;sup&gt;-2&lt;/sup&gt; (66% confidence interval: -1.21 to -0.47 Wm&lt;sup&gt;-2&lt;/sup&gt;) and an implied Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity of 3.33K (66% confidence interval: 2.65 to 4.22K), both consistent with IPCC AR6 and WCRP 2019 assessments but different from previous CCF-based estimates.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft</funding-source>
<award-id>HO 6588/3-1</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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