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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-3065</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Climate and Carbon Cycle Responses to a 21st century AMOC Collapse under a 2 &amp;deg;C Stabilization Pathway</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Frölicher</surname>
<given-names>Thomas L.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Maier</surname>
<given-names>Patrick</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Burger</surname>
<given-names>Friedrich A.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7781-8498</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Silvy</surname>
<given-names>Yona</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7082-7375</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Swingedouw</surname>
<given-names>Didier</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0583-0850</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hofmann Elizondo</surname>
<given-names>Urs</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4576-471X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Berger</surname>
<given-names>Manon</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC), University Bordeaux, CNRS, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>24</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>41</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Thomas L. Frölicher et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3065/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3065/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3065/egusphere-2026-3065.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3065/egusphere-2026-3065.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the climate system, yet the climate and carbon cycle responses to a collapse under emission pathways consistent with the Paris Agreement remain poorly understood. Using the comprehensive GFDL ESM2M Earth System Model with the Adaptive Emissions Reduction Approach, we impose a freshwater-induced strong AMOC weakening to 20 % of its preindustrial strength, initiated in year 2026 and achieved within 60 years. The counterfactual simulations without freshwater hosing otherwise follow a pathway in which global warming stabilizes at 2 &amp;deg;C and the AMOC weakens only modestly and partially recovers. Relative to the 2 &amp;deg;C scenario without AMOC collapse, a strong AMOC weakening cools global mean surface air temperature by &amp;minus;0.8 &amp;deg;C (5-member ensemble range: &amp;minus;0.7 to &amp;minus;0.9) by 2171&amp;ndash;2200, offsetting 40 % of global warming. Pronounced cooling is simulated in the North Atlantic region, reaching up to -5.4 &amp;deg;C (-8.0 to -3.3) in winter over Iceland relative to 1861&amp;ndash;1900 conditions. The global cooling is primarily driven by larger negative feedback from clouds, driven by an increase in low-level clouds in the North Atlantic region, with smaller contributions from enhanced global ocean heat storage and reduced atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;. The total ocean heat content increases by an additional 488 ZJ (442&amp;ndash;531), primarily south of 20&amp;deg; N, associated with reduced northward heat transport and enhanced heat uptake in the North Atlantic. The additional heat increases global thermosteric sea level rise by an additional 10 % (8&amp;ndash;12), with enhanced rise in the western and tropical North Atlantic and northern Indian Ocean, but pronounced reductions in the eastern North Atlantic. Atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; declines by 13 ppm due to anomalous land carbon uptake of 44 GtC (33&amp;ndash;53), dominated by enhanced carbon storage in the Amazon region under cooler and wetter conditions. In contrast, global ocean carbon storage decreases by 14 GtC, mainly north of 20&amp;deg; N. The AMOC-induced cooling temporarily breaks the near-linear relationship between cumulative CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions and warming, increasing the remaining emission budget for limiting warming to 2 &amp;deg;C by 63 % (54&amp;ndash;72). Compared to identical freshwater forcing under preindustrial conditions, the surface temperature, ocean heat content, and sea-level responses to an AMOC collapse are substantially damped in a 2 &amp;deg;C world, indicating reduced climate sensitivity to AMOC collapse in a warmer world. These results demonstrate that a strong AMOC weakening would profoundly alter the climate&amp;ndash;carbon cycle system and underscore the importance of explicitly accounting for AMOC risks in long-term climate assessments.</p>
</abstract>
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