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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-3034</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Long term Strengthening of the CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; Sink and Spatiotemporal &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; dynamics in the northern Gulf of Mexico: Insights from a 22 year Satellite based Machine Learning Reconstruction</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jiang</surname>
<given-names>Zong-Pei</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5106-7593</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>Fengqin</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Liang</surname>
<given-names>Wenzhao</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ma</surname>
<given-names>Kailang</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Le</surname>
<given-names>Chenfeng</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Pan</surname>
<given-names>Yiwen</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5331-931X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cai</surname>
<given-names>Wei-Jun</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3606-8325</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>School of Marine Science and Policy, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>11</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>25</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Zong-Pei Jiang et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3034/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3034/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3034/egusphere-2026-3034.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3034/egusphere-2026-3034.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The northern Gulf of Mexico (nGOM) is a river‑dominated marginal sea with strong physical‑biogeochemical variability. We reconstruct sea surface partial pressure of CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; (&lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;) at 4‑km, 8-day resolution from 2003 to 2024 using a satellite‑based, season‑specific random forest model (independent validation R&amp;sup2; = 0.82, RMSE = 27.6 &amp;mu;atm). The climatological &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; distribution exhibits a sharp coastal‑to‑offshore gradient: river‑influenced coastal waters (SSS &amp;lt; 33) have persistently low &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; with high spatial variability, while offshore waters (SSS &amp;gt; 33) have higher &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; with weaker heterogeneity and lower seasonal amplitude. The nGOM acts as a net CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; sink for atmospheric, largely concentrated in the river‑influenced plume region due to riverine nutrient‑stimulated biological uptake.&amp;nbsp;Seasonal &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; variation is dominantly controlled by temperature but counteracted by spring‑summer biological drawdown (reducing &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;) and autumn‑winter vertical mixing with CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;‑rich deeper water (raising &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;). Interannual &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; variability is dominantly affected by year-to-year changes in river discharge and nutrient loading, with higher discharge leading to lower &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; via enhanced biological uptake. On a decadal timescale, sea surface &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; increased at a rate of 0.50 &amp;plusmn; 0.20 &amp;mu;atm yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;, much slower than atmospheric &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; (2.13 &amp;plusmn; 0.04 &amp;mu;atm yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;), leading to a strengthening&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;oceanic CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; sink with the sea-to-air flux becoming more negative at &amp;minus;0.41 &amp;plusmn; 0.06 mmol C m&lt;sup&gt;-2&lt;/sup&gt; d&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;. Furthermore, a decreasing frequency of easterly winds has reduced the westward transport of the Mississippi River plume, causing a higher &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; increasing rate on the western Texas‑Louisiana shelf.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="25"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Natural Science Foundation of China</funding-source>
<award-id>42376040</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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