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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-3023</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Improving low flow prediction from hydrologic models using alternative model calibration and post-processing techniques</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wan</surname>
<given-names>Tong</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kroll</surname>
<given-names>Charles N.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vogel</surname>
<given-names>Richard M.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9759-0024</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Environmental Science, College of Environmental Science and Forestry, State University of New York,  Syracuse, New York, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Environmental Resources Engineering, College of Environmental Science and Forestry, State University of New York, Syracuse, New York, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>12</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>22</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Tong Wan et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3023/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3023/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3023/egusphere-2026-3023.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3023/egusphere-2026-3023.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Accurate prediction of low flow series and statistics remains a major challenge in hydrologic modeling. This study evaluates the effectiveness of combining model calibration strategies and post-processing approaches to improve low flow simulation from hydrologic models. WRF-Hydro, a fully distributed deterministic watershed model, is calibrated, post-processed, and evaluated using alternative methods that only require observed and simulated streamflows. Model calibration is performed using alternative objective functions that target different flow magnitudes. This study applies two post-processing approaches, quantile mapping bias correction and stochastic ensemble generation using log-streamflow ratios, to three unregulated watersheds in New York State. The skill of the model simulations and post-processing techniques is evaluated by assessing prediction of low flow series and statistics. Calibration alone could not address conditional bias or reduce the variability of low streamflow estimators. While quantile mapping removes conditional bias, estimators of low flow series and design statistics still exhibited large variability. In contrast, ensemble-based methods led to considerable reductions in both bias and variability of low flow series and design statistic estimators. The ensemble methods performed better when statistics were obtained from an average single streamflow trace than as the average of the statistic across all ensembles. In addition, during a forecasting simulation, resampling of errors from the calibration period was shown to improve low flow estimators during forecast periods when observed streamflows are unknown. These findings suggest that improving low flow simulations requires shifting emphasis from calibration and bias correction methods, toward the development of ensemble-based post-processing approaches.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="22"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Science Mission Directorate</funding-source>
<award-id>80NSSC21K1731</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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