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<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-2975</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Encoding-dependent verdicts and H_1 miscalibration in ensemble persistent homology of cyclone trajectories</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dai</surname>
<given-names>Rongzhen</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0005-7165-0080</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Independent Researcher, Yangzhou, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>23</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>23</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Rongzhen Dai</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2975/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2975/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2975/egusphere-2026-2975.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2975/egusphere-2026-2975.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Ensemble topological data analysis (TDA) on multi-storm cyclone trajectories has been proposed as a tool to detect coherent perturbations &amp;mdash; such as those associated with extreme geomagnetic events &amp;mdash; that may not register in any single-storm intensity time series. We construct three principled longitude encodings for the cyclone point cloud (linear modular, unit-sphere, and lat-linear-plus-longitude-circle cylinder) and apply the same ensemble-TDA pipeline to the same data: all storms whose lifetime overlaps the &amp;plusmn;15-day peak window of Halloween 2003, St Patrick&amp;rsquo;s Day 2015, or Gannon 2024 (25 event storms; 1,020 calendar-matched controls). Three findings emerge. First, the D1 pool H_1 permutation p-value depends on encoding choice in a way that flips the qualitative verdict: perm-p_H1 = 0.130 (linear), 0.009 (unit-sphere), 0.214 (cylinder), on identical event and control sets. Second, a 49-placebo calibration returns an H_0 false-positive rate close to the nominal 5 % in all three encodings (8.2 %, 4.1 %, 6.1 %), but an H_1 false-positive rate that is consistently above nominal in all three (8.2 %, 10.2 %, 14.3 %; directional consistency across encodings, not individually significant at n = 49 &amp;mdash; the cylinder rate sits at the Wilson 95 % upper bound) &amp;mdash; H_1 calibration is inflated by a factor 1.6&amp;times;&amp;ndash;2.9&amp;times; regardless of encoding choice. Third, this dimension asymmetry between H_0 (calibrated) and H_1 (inflated) recurs in stratified attribution across two basin cells and three single-event cells, and in subsample-size sensitivity tests at N &amp;isin; {400, 600, 800, 1000}. We interpret the pattern as observational evidence that ensemble TDA on cyclone-trajectory data carries an intrinsic H_1 inflation that is not curable by lon-encoding choice alone. The solar-perturbation hypothesis cannot be tested through this pipeline until an encoding-invariant H_1-calibrated protocol is in place. We frame the contribution as a methodological cautionary tale: pooled point-cloud TDA on geospatial trajectories with periodic coordinates is more fragile than its formal stability theorems suggest. We propose a minimum protocol of multi-encoding agreement testing plus dimension-resolved placebo calibration as a precondition for any positive ensemble-TDA claim in this class of problems.</p>
</abstract>
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