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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-2952</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Ensemble-based global fire modeling as a tool to characterize extreme wildfire events</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ribeiro</surname>
<given-names>Andreia F. S.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0481-0337</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Biling</surname>
<given-names>Maik</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7315-7007</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Thonicke</surname>
<given-names>Kirsten</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5283-4937</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>von Bloh</surname>
<given-names>Werner</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wessel</surname>
<given-names>Jakob</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2621-2477</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Undorf</surname>
<given-names>Sabine</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7026-080X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Forkel</surname>
<given-names>Matthias</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0363-9697</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zscheischler</surname>
<given-names>Jakob</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-1629</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Compound Environmental Risks, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research—UFZ, Leipzig, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A 31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>TUD Dresden University of Technology, Dresden, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>05</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>34</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Andreia F. S. Ribeiro et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2952/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2952/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2952/egusphere-2026-2952.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2952/egusphere-2026-2952.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Understanding the full range of possible extreme wildfire events is crucial for risk assessment and adaptation planning. While the historical record offers only one realization of climate, large ensemble simulations sample a broader range of physically plausible climate trajectories, enabling the assessment of rare but realistic extreme events beyond what the observational record alone can reveal. Here we drive the process-based dynamic vegetation-fire model LPJmL-SPITFIRE at the global scale with different climate inputs to produce three sets of simulations: a 40 member large ensemble (40 members &amp;times; 36 years sample), a single member drawn from the same ensemble (36 years sample), and a reanalysis-driven simulation (36 years sample), with the latter two each representing only a single trajectory of the climate system. This design enables direct comparison of how these two single realizations (single member and reanalysis) versus large ensemble simulations sample the most extreme fire events. We demonstrate that the single realizations are not suited to study risks associated with the most extreme events in fire danger, burned area, and fire carbon emissions that would be possible under current climate conditions. As expected, the highest values in these runs are typically much lower than those of the large ensemble in most regions. The undersampling of extremes by single realizations is greater for fire impacts (burned area and carbon emissions) than for fire danger, highlighting that vegetation&amp;ndash;fire feedbacks interact nonlinearly with internal climate variability. While large ensembles reveal more extreme possible events than those simulated with reanalysis and a single climate model ensemble member, they also enable a more robust analysis of the relationship between extreme fire danger and extreme impacts. In particular, the most extreme burned area and emissions do not always coincide with the most extreme fire danger, underscoring the role of non-climatic factors such as ignitions and fuels. Specifically, years with global maximum impacts may occur in years with global fire danger 4.6 % &amp;ndash; 8.4 % lower than the maximum. The findings demonstrate that modeling a broader range of physically plausible wildfire events through large ensemble simulations can help identify the mechanisms leading to the most extreme and high-impact events.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="34"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft</funding-source>
<award-id>530175554</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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