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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-2871</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Technical note: Evaluation of conceptual predator-prey models for the quantitative modeling of precipitating open-cell stratocumulus via feature-based Bayesian inversion of a suite of Large eddy simulations</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gjini</surname>
<given-names>Rebecca</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0009-0410-0600</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Morzfeld</surname>
<given-names>Matthias</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Glassmeier</surname>
<given-names>Franziska</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1132-7821</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Feingold</surname>
<given-names>Graham</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0774-2926</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Cecil H. and Ida M. Green Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of  California, San Diego, CA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>18</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>31</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Rebecca Gjini et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2871/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2871/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2871/egusphere-2026-2871.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2871/egusphere-2026-2871.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>We consider two very different types of models of precipitating open-cell stratocumulus clouds. The first model type is a computationally expensive large eddy simulation (LES), that resolves convection and clouds at high temporal and spatial resolutions. The second model type is the nonlinear cloud and rain (C&amp;amp;R) equation, a scalar delay differential equation (DDE) that interprets interactions of precipitation and clouds phenomenologically by predator (rain) and prey (cloud) dynamics. We evaluate the extent to which one may use the C&amp;amp;R equation as a quantitative tool for representing selected aspects of an LES. Specifically, we estimate parameters of the C&amp;amp;R equation from a suite of LES via feature-based Bayesian inversions and track the evolution of posterior distributions over C&amp;amp;R model parameters under changing meteorological conditions in the LES. Our inversions show that the C&amp;amp;R equation can be calibrated to generate limit cycles that are quantitatively compatible with cycles of cloud growth and decay across a wide spectrum of meteorological conditions. The successful inversions reiterate the robustness of the predator-prey analogy to the dynamics of precipitating open-cell stratocumulus. When we interpret the inversions jointly, however, we observe counterintuitive and partially nonphysical shifts and changes in the posterior distributions over the C&amp;amp;R model parameters. Our evaluation study thus highlights the challenges one faces when mapping LES dynamics to a scalar DDE, which can stem either from structural inadequacies in the DDE model, or from the specific feature-based inversion framework, or a mixture of both.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Office of Naval Research</funding-source>
<award-id>N00014-21-1-2309</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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