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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-2811</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Base-state dependence of parameter sensitivity for the Twomey effect in a perturbed parameter ensemble</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wynn</surname>
<given-names>Sophie</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6318-8835</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Watson-Parris</surname>
<given-names>Duncan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5312-4950</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Duran</surname>
<given-names>Brandon M.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5427-8700</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mülmenstädt</surname>
<given-names>Johannes</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1105-6678</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Halıcıoğlu Data Science Institute, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Atmospheric, Climate and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>19</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>16</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Sophie Wynn et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2811/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2811/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2811/egusphere-2026-2811.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2811/egusphere-2026-2811.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>A major source of uncertainty in the effective radiative forcing due to aerosol-cloud interactions (ERFaci) arises from parameters that represent unresolved sub-grid-scale processes in global climate models. Constraining parametric uncertainty requires identifying parameters driving the largest spread in ERFaci. Perturbed parameter ensembles (PPE) address this by systematically varying parameters related to aerosol emission, cloud microphysics, and associated small-scale processes. We perform a global sensitivity analysis of the three components of ERFaci from liquid clouds, the Twomey effect, liquid water path (LWP), and cloud fraction (CF) adjustments, in a PPE with and without constraining to the model&apos;s present-day base state. Under uniform prior sampling, autoconversion parameters unrelated to aerosol activation counterintuitively dominate the Twomey effect. Only after constraining the base state are aerosol emission and activation parameters revealed as controlling parameters for the Twomey effect. The apparent control of autoconversion parameters over the Twomey effect arises because these parameters control the cloud base state, which in turn affects the strength of the Twomey effect. The dominant parameters for LWP and CF adjustments remain related to autoconversion before and after the constraint. Constraining to the base state is therefore essential to inferring the correct parameters and processes controlling the model&amp;rsquo;s climate responses.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="16"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Science Foundation</funding-source>
<award-id>2441832</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program</funding-source>
<award-id>DGE-2038238</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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