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<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-2784</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Westward extension of ENSO teleconnections links spring rainfall between northern Southeast Asia and the Arabian Peninsula</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Nguyen-Le</surname>
<given-names>Dzung</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Space and Earth Sciences, University of Science and Technology of Hanoi (USTH), Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology (VAST), Hanoi, Vietnam</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>01</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>34</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Dzung Nguyen-Le</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2784/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2784/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2784/egusphere-2026-2784.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2784/egusphere-2026-2784.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>ENSO teleconnections are not stationary, but how this nonstationarity reorganizes spring hydroclimate across Asia remains unclear. Spring rainfall is particularly important for the Arabian Peninsula, one of the world&amp;rsquo;s most arid regions, where even modest rainfall changes can affect water availability and drought risk. Here we show that a March&amp;ndash;April rainfall seesaw between the Arabian Peninsula and northern Southeast Asia strengthened markedly after the late 1990s. During 1979&amp;ndash;1998, ENSO-related convection and circulation anomalies remained mainly confined to the tropical Pacific&amp;ndash;Maritime Continent sector and projected only weakly toward the Arabian Peninsula, with limited evidence of a coherent pathway linking the two regions. During 1999&amp;ndash;2023, the ENSO-related response extended farther westward and northwestward, linking El Ni&amp;ntilde;o-related suppressed convection and reduced rainfall over northern Southeast Asia with enhanced rainfall over the Arabian Peninsula. This shift was associated with a reorganization of Indo-Pacific overturning, including a more distinct double-cell Walker response, a strengthened Arabian Peninsula vertical branch extending farther northward, and enhanced upper-level Rossby-type and thermal adjustment. Idealized model experiments show that western equatorial Indian Ocean heating can generate an Arabian Peninsula-sector response and that this response becomes more effective under the later-period background state. Observed changes in convection, low-level pressure and winds, and the upper-level jet and divergence further indicate that the later-period ENSO anomalies developed within a modified mean-state environment. These results identify a nonstationary ENSO teleconnection pathway in which the westward extension of tropical heating anomalies, Walker&amp;ndash;Hadley coupling, and off-equatorial upper-level adjustment connect spring rainfall variability across Southeast and West Asia.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="34"/></counts>
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