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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-2565</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>A robust multi-indicator framework for landslide early warning using complementary statistical physics-based diagnostics</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lei</surname>
<given-names>Qinghua</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3990-4707</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sornette</surname>
<given-names>Didier</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, 752 36, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management, Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>20</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>33</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Qinghua Lei</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2565/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2565/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2565/egusphere-2026-2565.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2565/egusphere-2026-2565.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Landslide early warning remains challenging because many slopes evolve through intermittent, nonlinear, and non-monotonic deformation before catastrophic failure. Here, we develop an integrated early warning framework that combines three statistical physics-based diagnostics: velocity &lt;em&gt;b&lt;/em&gt;-value tracking, dragon-king detection, and log-periodic power law singularity (LPPLS) time-to-failure analysis. The velocity &lt;em&gt;b&lt;/em&gt;-value captures long-term changes in the distribution of slope displacement rates, dragon-king detection identifies statistically significant extreme velocity outliers, and LPPLS analysis describes the quasi-deterministic evolution towards a finite-time singularity yielding probabilistic estimates of the failure time and its uncertainty. Applied pseudo-prospectively to the Preonzo, Veslemannen, and Stampa landslides, the framework reveals a coherent sequence of precursory signals: &lt;em&gt;b&lt;/em&gt;-value decline generally appears first, dragon-king outliers emerge later as failure becomes imminent, and LPPLS forecasts become increasingly constrained during the final acceleration stage. These complementary indicators are integrated into a traffic-light warning scheme that translates complex rupture dynamics into operationally interpretable warning levels. By combining precursory signals across multiple timescales, the proposed framework establishes a robust and physically grounded foundation for next-generation landslide early warning.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="33"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>European Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>101232311</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>National Natural Science Foundation of China</funding-source>
<award-id>U2039202</award-id>
<award-id>T2350710802</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>Science, Technology and Innovation Commission of Shenzhen Municipality</funding-source>
<award-id>GJHZ20210705141805017</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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