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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-2548</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Everyday weather in a warmer world</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Thomas</surname>
<given-names>Rhidian Huw</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Compo</surname>
<given-names>Gilbert P.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>George</surname>
<given-names>Steve</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0396-0299</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hegerl</surname>
<given-names>Gabriele C.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Schurer</surname>
<given-names>Andrew</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9176-3622</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Shepherd</surname>
<given-names>Theodore G.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Slivinski</surname>
<given-names>Laura C.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Thompson</surname>
<given-names>Vikki</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hawkins</surname>
<given-names>Ed</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>13</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>21</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Rhidian Huw Thomas et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2548/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2548/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2548/egusphere-2026-2548.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2548/egusphere-2026-2548.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>How would the weather of a year from history be experienced in a warmer world? We reconstruct the weather of 1903 using a reanalysis system that assimilates only surface pressure observations (20CRv3) with observed SSTs, and then reconstruct it again with increased SSTs and atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; levels. By assimilating the same pressure observations, the reanalysis experiments produce the same weather patterns, and so we translate the weather of 1903 into a warmer context. We focus on changes in the everyday weather of four regions with a high density of historical pressure observations, where the circulation is constrained and differences between the experiments are due to the thermodynamic component of climate change. In these regions, nearly all days are warmer in the warmer world experiments, but the largest increases occur on cold days (below freezing) and hot days (above 20 &amp;deg;C). Daily rainfall becomes more variable, even in regions where total rainfall is reduced. Fewer days experience light rain while more days experience heavy rain, and rainfall only increases on less than one day in 10. This single year pair of reanalysis experiments also recovers common patterns of observed and projected long-term changes. For example, Western Mediterranean precipitation declines outside winter, but shows a small increase in winter in the absence of storm track shifts. By anchoring our analysis in weather patterns that have actually occurred, the reanalysis experiments point to how our day-to-day experience of the weather may change in a warmer world.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Natural Environment Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>NE/Z000203/1</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Research Ireland</funding-source>
<award-id>22/CC/11103</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration</funding-source>
<award-id>NA22OAR4320151</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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