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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-2465</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Subseasonal prediction of compound heat and drought events</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wu</surname>
<given-names>Rachel Wai-Ying</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8100-2424</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Büeler</surname>
<given-names>Dominik</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9904-6281</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Pyrina</surname>
<given-names>Maria</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4890-0732</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Day</surname>
<given-names>Jonathan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3750-649X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Imamovic</surname>
<given-names>Adel</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Humphrey</surname>
<given-names>Vincent</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2541-6382</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Domeisen</surname>
<given-names>Daniela I.V.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1463-929X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zürich, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Center for Climate Systems Modeling, C2SM, Zürich, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, Bonn, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, Reading, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>13</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>26</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Rachel Wai-Ying Wu et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2465/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2465/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2465/egusphere-2026-2465.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2465/egusphere-2026-2465.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Compound heat and drought events have severe socio-economic impacts on human health, agriculture and electricity supply. While these compound extremes are projected to intensify under climate change, our understanding of their subseasonal predictability remains limited compared to that of individual heat or drought events. In this study, we evaluate the predictability of compound heat and drought events over Europe using the subseasonal prediction system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We find that the physical coupling between heat and drought contributes up to 10 % towards an increase in forecast skill when heat and drought co-occur, relative to a baseline that assumes independence between extremes. However, in regions where the physical coupling between heat and drought via land-surface interaction is misrepresented, compound skill can be lower than when drought are predicted in isolation. These findings highlight the critical role of accurately simulating land-surface feedbacks to improve the reliability of the subseasonal prediction for compound extremes.</p>
</abstract>
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</front>
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