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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-2454</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Impact attribution of compound flooding from Tropical Cyclone Idai: Assessing the influence of land cover change and underlying socio-economic drivers using a mixed-methods approach</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Webb</surname>
<given-names>Poppy E.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vertegaal</surname>
<given-names>Doris</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4611-3791</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vogel</surname>
<given-names>Martha M.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9509-7332</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jack</surname>
<given-names>Chrisopher D.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Muis</surname>
<given-names>Sanne</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, the Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>28</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>30</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Poppy E. Webb et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2454/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2454/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2454/egusphere-2026-2454.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2454/egusphere-2026-2454.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>In this study, we investigate the influence of socio-economic drivers on the impacts&amp;nbsp;of&amp;nbsp;compound flooding&amp;nbsp;induced by&amp;nbsp;tropical cyclone (TC)&amp;nbsp;Idai.&amp;nbsp;Making landfall close to the city of Beira in Mozambique in 2019, TC Idai was one of the most devastating TC&amp;rsquo;s to have hit the Southern Hemisphere. Attribution studies&amp;nbsp;generally quantify&amp;nbsp;the contribution&amp;nbsp;of climate change&amp;nbsp;to extreme events and their&amp;nbsp;societal&amp;nbsp;impacts; however, few&amp;nbsp;studies&amp;nbsp;assess how socio-economic drivers amplify or attenuate those impacts. We develop a mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative data from Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) and Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) with&amp;nbsp;quantitative data from a physics-based&amp;nbsp;modelling chain to assess how land use and land cover (LULC) changes&amp;nbsp;over 20 years prior to TC Idai plausibly influenced the compound flooding impacts&amp;nbsp;from TC Idai.&amp;nbsp;Results from the&amp;nbsp;quantitative&amp;nbsp;approach show&amp;nbsp;that land use changes (irrespective of climate change) potentially worsened the flood hazard from TC Idai. Results from the qualitative approach explain the underlying drivers of these land use changes such as deforestation driven by charcoal production and informal urban expansion. By integrating&amp;nbsp;two methodologies,&amp;nbsp;we find that the impacts of TC Idai were not only the result of intense climatic hazards but were amplified by complex, deeply rooted socio-economic processes that create reinforcing cycles of vulnerability and exposure. This research&amp;nbsp;demonstrates&amp;nbsp;the value of an interdisciplinary, mixed-methods approach, using localised contextual information to advance impact attribution in data-scarce settings.</p>
</abstract>
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