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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-2402</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Multi-Decadal Expansion of Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lakes in Central-Eastern Nepal (1992&amp;ndash;2024): Remote Sensing Assessment and GLOF Hazard Implications</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ghimire</surname>
<given-names>Ashok</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0009-6042-145X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Manandhar</surname>
<given-names>Susa</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0001-9286-5700</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Basnet</surname>
<given-names>Tribikram</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Aryal</surname>
<given-names>Kumar</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dhital</surname>
<given-names>Sushant</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Karki</surname>
<given-names>Reshu</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dhakal</surname>
<given-names>Aakriti</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Krakauer</surname>
<given-names>Nir</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4926-5427</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Pradhananga</surname>
<given-names>Dhiraj</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>The Small Earth Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Meteorology, Tri-Chandra Multiple Campus, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil Engineering, City College of New York, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>13</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>17</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Ashok Ghimire et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2402/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2402/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2402/egusphere-2026-2402.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2402/egusphere-2026-2402.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Glacial lakes in the Himalayan regions are expanding rapidly under ongoing climate change, intensifying the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). This study quantifies multi-decadal area changes (1992&amp;ndash;2024) in four Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lakes (PDGLs), Thulagi, Lumding Tsho, Hongu 2, and Lower Barun, located in central-eastern Nepal, using Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 satellite imagery processed within the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud platform. Lake boundaries were delineated from post-monsoon (October&amp;ndash;November) median composites using the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI; threshold = 0.3), supplemented by manual delineation where topographic shadow conditions compromised automated extractions. Area uncertainties were computed using the standard half-pixel buffer method. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend tests with Sen&amp;rsquo;s slope estimator were applied to all lake area time series to evaluate the statistical significance and rate of expansion. Sub-period regression analysis was used to assess acceleration in lake growth. Empirical area-volume scaling was applied to estimate changes in impounded water volume. All four lakes exhibited statistically significant, monotonically increasing area trends over the 32-year study period (Mann-Kendall tau = 1, p &amp;lt; 0.001 for each lake). Lower Barun exhibited the highest expansion rate (Sen&amp;rsquo;s slope = 0.063 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;), growing from 0.77 &amp;plusmn; 0.053 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; in 1992 to 2.76 &amp;plusmn; 0.13 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; in 2024 (a 258 % increase), with post-2010 expansion accelerating by a factor of 1.35. Lumding Tsho showed a strongly accelerating growth trajectory (R&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; = 0.96) with a post-2010 rate that more than doubled. The combined estimated additional water volume stored across all four lakes since 1992 approaches 608.6 &amp;times; 10&lt;sup&gt;6&lt;/sup&gt; m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt;, representing a GLOF hazard of exceptional and growing scale. The approach demonstrates a scalable and reproducible framework for long-term glacial lake monitoring and hazard assessment, applicable across data-sparse high mountain environment.</p>
</abstract>
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