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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
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<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-2223</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>An Earth system deep learning classifier for tipping point detection</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Grohganz</surname>
<given-names>Madleen</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2021-2882</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bury</surname>
<given-names>Thomas M.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1595-9444</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>van der Bolt</surname>
<given-names>Bregje</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Reichart</surname>
<given-names>Gert-Jan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hennekam</surname>
<given-names>Rick</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Ocean Systems, NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Den Burg, 1790 AB, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Mathematics, University of California, Riverside, Riverside, CA 92521, United States</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Environmental Sciences Group, Water Systems and Global Change, Wageningen University, Wageningen, 6708 PB, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, 3584 CB, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>23</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>25</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Madleen Grohganz et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2223/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2223/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2223/egusphere-2026-2223.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2223/egusphere-2026-2223.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Tipping points are thresholds at which a system, often abruptly and irreversibly, transitions from a stable state to a contrasting one. Crossing such critical boundaries poses a risk to Earth system stability and may have catastrophic consequences. This is especially relevant, as current climate change is destabilizing Earth subsystems, potentially bringing them closer to tipping points. Thus, it is important to be able to detect approaching tipping points in the Earth&amp;rsquo;s system, which can be achieved through calibration on palaeo-records. Recently, new deep learning (DL) methods have been established that are able to confidently and quantitatively identify different types of critical transitions characterised by their abruptness and (ir)reversibility. Based on this, we develop a new (simplified) DL classifier focusing on the quantitative detection of catastrophic tipping points (fold bifurcations) in the Earth system. Our approach reduces computational demand and improves performance, especially for short timeseries. We first test the new classifier&apos;s performance on synthetic data and subsequently on different existing Cenozoic proxy records. Our DL results are compared to the results from previous studies applying generic early warning signals (EWS), which can detect approaching transitions qualitatively but cannot distinguish bifurcation types (abruptness and (ir)reversibility of the transition). Our DL classifier enables us to identify how abrupt and (ir)reversible an approaching transition is, which is important for tipping point risk assessment and mitigation. Results are generally consistent between generic EWS from previous studies and our DL approach and fit with what is known from the geological context. We note that some results are dependent on the length of the classifier used and the time interval investigated before the bifurcation. We implement an out-of-distribution (OOD) detection method to reduce the misclassification of non-catastrophic bifurcations as catastrophic tipping points. Combined with the binary DL classifier, this approach enables reliable, quantitative detection of catastrophic tipping points in Earth system records.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-source>Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek</funding-source>
<award-id>VI.Vidi.223.138</award-id>
<award-id>SUMMIT.1.034</award-id>
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