<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" specific-use="SMUR" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-2222</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Spurious seasonality of Earth observation LAI across three northern evergreen needleleaf forests: Implications for analyses of the carbon cycle</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Green</surname>
<given-names>Tim J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4223-9485</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Milodowski</surname>
<given-names>David T.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8419-8506</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Smallman</surname>
<given-names>T. Luke</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0835-1003</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mäkelä</surname>
<given-names>Annikki</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9633-7350</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Williams</surname>
<given-names>Mathew</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6117-5208</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Forest Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>24</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>32</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Tim J. Green et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2222/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2222/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2222/egusphere-2026-2222.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2222/egusphere-2026-2222.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Leaf area index (LAI) is a key biophysical variable which quantifies the surface area for light capture and photosynthetic activity per unit ground area, giving a first order constraint on potential photosynthesis. LAI is tightly coupled to the carbon, energy, and water cycles of the global terrestrial system. Numerous Earth observation (EO) products provide estimates of LAI over time (LAI&lt;sub&gt;EO&lt;/sub&gt;), delivering valuable information on plant phenology and canopy dynamics. Widely-used LAI&lt;sub&gt;EO&lt;/sub&gt;, however, consistently exhibit unrealistic seasonality in evergreen needleleaf forests at the northern latitudes. Taking a model-data fusion approach, we show that na&amp;iuml;vely assimilating biased, whole-year LAI&lt;sub&gt;EO&lt;/sub&gt; (i.e., the business-as-usual (BAU) approach) at three well-studied evergreen needleleaf forests in Fennoscandia implies an ecosystem carbon cycle which is unrealistic and inconsistent with independent lines of evidence. We further demonstrate that the model-data fusion framework, CARDAMOM, is capable of diagnosing realistic seasonal amplitudes of LAI by assimilating localised information on leaf lifespan coupled with summer-only LAI&lt;sub&gt;EO&lt;/sub&gt; (i.e., the alternative (ALT) approach). Important differences arise from the BAU and ALT experiments. The BAU experiment showed highly seasonal canopy dynamics and diagnostic leaf traits erroneously consistent with deciduous species. Conversely, the ALT experiment displayed canopy dynamics and functional characteristics more reflective of evergreen needleleaf species. For BAU, biases in LAI&lt;sub&gt;EO&lt;/sub&gt; propagated throughout the carbon cycle, especially in the southern, more productive sites. This investigation highlights the need for improved LAI&lt;sub&gt;EO&lt;/sub&gt; estimates in northern evergreen forests to enhance understanding of carbon cycle processes in this region of rapid warming and large carbon stores, and provides a mechanism for improvement using independent leaf trait data.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="32"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Centre for Earth Observation</funding-source>
<award-id>NE/R016518/1</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>National Centre for Earth Observation</funding-source>
<award-id>NE/X019071/1</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>Natural Environment Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>NE/T01279X/1</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
</back>
</article>