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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-2198</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>East Asian Anthropogenic Aerosols Strongly Influence Past and Present Southern African Hydroclimate and Ecosystem Changes</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sheng</surname>
<given-names>Bosi</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7670-101X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bollasina</surname>
<given-names>Massimo A.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7509-7650</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gagnon</surname>
<given-names>Alexandre S.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1301-6015</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wilcox</surname>
<given-names>Laura J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Reynolds</surname>
<given-names>Thomas P. S.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6754-9183</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Beckett</surname>
<given-names>Christopher T. S.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>Haolin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8783-3782</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>Qingxiang</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1424-4108</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Nabat</surname>
<given-names>Pierre</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7034-638X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Allen</surname>
<given-names>Robert J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1616-9719</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Samset</surname>
<given-names>Bjørn H.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8013-1833</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Merikanto</surname>
<given-names>Joonas</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1145-2569</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Persad</surname>
<given-names>Geeta G.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Takemura</surname>
<given-names>Toshihiko</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2859-6067</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tsigaridis</surname>
<given-names>Kostas</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5328-819X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12">
<sup>12</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13">
<sup>13</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ahmadi</surname>
<given-names>Sharar</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2754-4820</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Elling</surname>
<given-names>Maxwell T.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6091-809X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff14">
<sup>14</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff15">
<sup>15</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>von Salzen</surname>
<given-names>Knut</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff16">
<sup>16</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff17">
<sup>17</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Westervelt</surname>
<given-names>Daniel M.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0806-9961</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff18">
<sup>18</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Oshima</surname>
<given-names>Naga</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8451-2411</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff19">
<sup>19</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Koshiro</surname>
<given-names>Tsuyoshi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff19">
<sup>19</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Infrastructure and Environment, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>School of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Liverpool John Moores University, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, and Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System, Ministry of Education, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Météo-France, CNRS, Université de Toulouse, CNRM, Toulouse, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California Riverside, Riverside, CA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>Finnish Meteorological Institute, Climate Research, Helsinki, Finland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geological Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff11">
<label>11</label>
<addr-line>Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff12">
<label>12</label>
<addr-line>Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff13">
<label>13</label>
<addr-line>NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies, New York, NY, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff14">
<label>14</label>
<addr-line>Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff15">
<label>15</label>
<addr-line>Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff16">
<label>16</label>
<addr-line>Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff17">
<label>17</label>
<addr-line>Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff18">
<label>18</label>
<addr-line>Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff19">
<label>19</label>
<addr-line>Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Ibaraki, Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>20</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>25</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Bosi Sheng et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2198/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2198/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2198/egusphere-2026-2198.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2198/egusphere-2026-2198.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Southern Africa (SA) is highly sensitive to rainfall changes, as water availability significantly influences agriculture, ecosystems, and the region&apos;s socio-economic stability. Observations reveal substantial multi-decadal changes in December&amp;ndash;February precipitation during the second half of the 20&lt;sup&gt;th&lt;/sup&gt; century, characterized by enhanced rainfall over the southern part of SA (hereafter SSA), including Madagascar (MDG), and drying to the north. More recently, however, this long-term wetting tendency has reversed, with widespread drying observed across much of the region since the mid-2000s. Despite their global significance, their impact of anthropogenic aerosols on southern African precipitation has received limited attention, and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. We show that East Asian (EAS) anthropogenic aerosols played a key role in driving enhanced precipitation over SSA and MDG between 1945 and 2005, alongside the influence of internal variability. Increased EAS sulfate emissions strengthened interhemispheric temperature and pressure gradients, inducing a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and associated Hadley circulation, thereby enhancing moisture convergence over SSA and MDG. After the mid-2000s, rapid reductions in EAS aerosols reversed this circulation response and contributed to declining precipitation. Applying this physical framework to near-future scenarios from the Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project further suggests that continued reductions in aerosols will lead to further hydroclimatic adjustments. The recent decline in precipitation (2006&amp;ndash;2020) coincides with reduced gross primary productivity and leaf area index, as well as intensified fire-weather conditions. These findings highlight the sensitivity of southern African hydroclimate and ecosystems to remote anthropogenic aerosol emissions.</p>
</abstract>
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