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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-2125</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Implementation and evaluation of the lognormal prior probability distribution in a variational atmospheric inversion framework</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vojta</surname>
<given-names>Martin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8386-5381</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Thompson</surname>
<given-names>Rona L.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9485-7176</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Pisso</surname>
<given-names>Ignacio</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0056-7897</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Chemistry, Environmental Chemical Processes Laboratory (ECPL), University of Crete, Crete, Greece</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>NILU, Kjeller, Norway</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>These authors contributed equally to this work.</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>05</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>35</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Martin Vojta et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2125/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2125/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2125/egusphere-2026-2125.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2125/egusphere-2026-2125.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>In this study, we investigate the use of a lognormal prior probability distribution in atmospheric inverse modelling. We present the formal implementation in a variational inversion framework and analyze how the choice of statistical optimization parameter (mean, median, or mode) affects the inversion outcome. Using a case study of inverse modelling of sulfur hexafluoride (SF&lt;sub&gt;6&lt;/sub&gt;) in Europe, we evaluate the performance of the lognormal implementation through both synthetic and real data experiments, and compare the results to inversions using a normal prior probability distribution. We estimate the posterior uncertainties using a Monte Carlo approach and examine their distribution.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We find that optimizing for the mean or the mode can produce improved emission estimates under the condition of a strong observational constraint, however, this can lead to unstable and strongly biased inversion results under a weak constraint. In contrast, optimizing for the median consistently improves emission estimates and leads to physically plausible results across all tested cases, providing the most reliable option.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We show that inversions using a lognormal prior distribution produce a similar posterior emission pattern as when using a normal prior distribution, however, avoid non-physical negative emission values and occasionally allow for stronger positive emission adjustments. Posterior uncertainties can be estimated using interpercentile ranges from an ensemble of inversions with prior emission errors following a lognormal distribution. Due to the strong asymmetry of posterior distributions with respect to the sign of the inversion increments, error reduction is better assessed in log space, where it provides a clearer measure of the constraints imposed by the observations.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="35"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Norges Forskningsråd</funding-source>
<award-id>325610</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme</funding-source>
<award-id>101071247</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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