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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-1961</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Amplification of ENSO-driven vegetation variability at decadal and longer timescales</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Fahrenbach</surname>
<given-names>Nora L. S.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1688-8425</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jnglin Wills</surname>
<given-names>Robert C.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7776-2076</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>14</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>28</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Nora L. S. Fahrenbach</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1961/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1961/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1961/egusphere-2026-1961.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1961/egusphere-2026-1961.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The El Ni&amp;ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is recognized as the dominant driver of global vegetation variability on interannual timescales. Here, we examine how ENSO affects decadal to multi-decadal vegetation variability. We address this with partial spectral and mediation analysis applied to multi-centennial pre-industrial control simulations from 11 CMIP6 models with dynamic leaf area index (LAI). We find a spectral reddening of ENSO-driven vegetation variability, with a 20&amp;ndash;25 % amplification of the LAI signal at multi-decadal timescales and a 25&amp;ndash;65 % reduction at interannual timescales. The coherence between ENSO and LAI on multi-decadal timescales is governed by a direct causal impact of ENSO on LAI (88 %), while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) acts as a weak mediator (12 %). Mechanistically, persistence in vegetation originates from ENSO-induced changes in near-surface soil moisture, which is subsequently amplified by vegetation dynamics. This ENSO-related memory also manifests in Gross Primary Production (GPP), but it is suppressed in Net Primary Production (NPP) by a compensatory increase in autotrophic respiration. Our results illustrate how terrestrial persistence acts as a predictable, non-oceanic source of decadal variability, which could help extend the skill of climate predictions and improve hydrological risk management.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="28"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich</funding-source>
<award-id>not applicable</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung</funding-source>
<award-id>PCEFP2 203376</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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<back>
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</article>