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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-1899</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Temporally Coherent Modeling of Tropical Cyclone Compound Flooding for Reliable Coastal Hazard Estimation</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chung</surname>
<given-names>Min</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0005-2940-5970</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wada</surname>
<given-names>Ryota</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rohmer</surname>
<given-names>Jeremy</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9083-5965</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jonathan</surname>
<given-names>Philip</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>BRGM, Orleans, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>School of Mathematical Sciences, Lancaster University LA1 4YF, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>30</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>31</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Min Chung et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1899/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1899/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1899/egusphere-2026-1899.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1899/egusphere-2026-1899.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Tropical-cyclone-induced coastal flooding results from the combined action of multiple interdependent processes, whose temporal phasing and magnitude govern the severity of inundation. Conventional statistical frameworks typically model these processes using static event maxima, neglecting their temporal evolution and implicitly forcing co-occurrence of component extremes, which can lead to biased or physically inconsistent design-level estimates. To address this limitation, this study applies the Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Maxima with Temporal Exposure (MSTM-TE) framework, which explicitly embeds temporal coherence in the simulation of compound extremes. The framework is applied to a long-term tropical cyclone dataset for Guadeloupe in the French Antilles, reconstructing time series of significant wave height, peak wave period, and sea surface height to generate physically consistent synthetic storm events. From these simulations, total water level (TWL) is computed as the sum of sea surface height and wave run-up, providing an integrated metric of coastal flooding hazard.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Results show that MSTM-TE reduces bias and ensemble variance in TWL return-level estimation relative to conventional multivariate and location-specific approaches, highlighting the importance of preserving intra-storm temporal structure. The reconstructed storm evolutions reveal systematic temporal alignment between peaks in TWL and a compound wave-energy variable, indicating that wave-induced run-up dominates design-level flooding in the study domain. These findings establish MSTM-TE as a physics-informed statistical framework that bridges data efficiency, spatio-temporal realism, and methodological efficiency, offering a robust pathway for compound coastal flood risk assessment under limited observational data.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="31"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Interreg</funding-source>
<award-id>2014TC16RFTN008</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Japan Society for the Promotion of Science</funding-source>
<award-id>24K01090</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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