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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-1832</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Strategic Design of Methane Observation Networks to Improve Emission Estimates: A Case Study in Africa</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>Hui</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ciais</surname>
<given-names>Philippe</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8560-4943</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chevallier</surname>
<given-names>Frederic</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4327-3813</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zheng</surname>
<given-names>Bo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8344-3445</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Palmer</surname>
<given-names>Paul</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1487-0969</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hase</surname>
<given-names>Frank</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lopez</surname>
<given-names>Morgan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1725-3410</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ordway</surname>
<given-names>Elsa</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Peng</surname>
<given-names>Shushi</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5098-726X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Monteverde</surname>
<given-names>Danielle</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0198-8220</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ramonet</surname>
<given-names>Michel</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1157-1186</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>St. Clair</surname>
<given-names>Jason Michael</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9367-5749</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sagang</surname>
<given-names>Le Bienfaiteur</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Poulter</surname>
<given-names>Benjamin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9493-8600</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université  Paris-Saclay, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Ecological Remediation and Carbon Sequestration, Institute of Environment  and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 518055,  China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing  100084, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-ASF), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), 76344  Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Institute of the Environment and Sustainability,  University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and  Environmental Sciences, and Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Peking University, Beijing, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>Spark Climate Solutions, Covina, CA, 91723, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA,  USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff11">
<label>11</label>
<addr-line>Spark Climate Solutions, San Francisco, CA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>30</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>23</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Hui Li et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1832/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1832/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1832/egusphere-2026-1832.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1832/egusphere-2026-1832.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Ground-based and satellite atmospheric observations are essential for reducing uncertainties in methane (CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;) emissions by atmospheric inversion, particularly in data-sparse regions such as Africa. However, adding new observation sites does not yield linear improvements of emission uncertainties because overlapping transport sensitivities reduces marginal information gain. Here we develop a Bayesian framework to strategically optimize CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; observation network design for column retrievals from upward-looking Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectrometers (e.g., EM27/SUN), jointly identifying the optimal number of sites and their spatial configuration. The framework quantifies uncertainty reduction for grid-point (1&amp;deg;) total and sectoral emissions while accounting for transport redundancy, cloud screening, and observational errors. Using January and July as representative months, we find that uncertainty reduction increases rapidly during early network expansion but gradually saturates beyond a certain number of additional sites. An optimized configuration of ten new sites added to the existing network achieves over 65 % reduction in prior uncertainty for total African CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; emissions in both months, with comparable improvements across fire, wetland, and anthropogenic sectors. Sensitivity analyses indicate that while the optimal number of sites varies with assumptions about cloud filtering, the spatial configuration remains robust, supporting cost-effective observation network design in data-sparse regions.</p>
</abstract>
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</article-meta>
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