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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-1750</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Revisiting Discharge Envelope Curves: Hydrometeorological Analysis and Lessons from the 4 July 2025 Kerr County Flash Flood</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bose</surname>
<given-names>Ayantika R.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sharif</surname>
<given-names>Hatim O.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Giacomoni</surname>
<given-names>Marcio</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7027-4128</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Brasil</surname>
<given-names>Jose</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>School of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Management, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX 78249, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>18</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>18</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Ayantika R. Bose et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1750/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1750/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1750/egusphere-2026-1750.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1750/egusphere-2026-1750.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Flash floods are a primary driver of flood mortality in semi-arid regions where compound risk factors amplify convective extremes. The 4 July 2025 Kerr County flash flood in the Texas Hill Country-a region colloquially designated &quot;Flash Flood Alley&quot;-represents a benchmark hydrometeorological event. Triggered by a quasi-stationary mesoscale convective system derived from Tropical Storm Barry remnants, the event delivered more than 508 mm of rainfall over 72 hours, with peak 3-hour intensities exceeding the local 1,000-year recurrence threshold (National Weather Service, 2025). Using NOAA Stage IV rainfall estimates, USGS streamflow records, and mass-balance modeling, we reconstruct the hydrometeorological response of the South Fork and mainstem Guadalupe River. Estimated peak discharges at the South Fork ranged from 7,221 to 7,505 m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; s&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;1&lt;/sup&gt; (255,000&amp;ndash;265,000 ft&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; s&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;1&lt;/sup&gt;), approaching or exceeding the regional discharge envelope curve and surpassing the historical record set in July 1932. Antecedent drought may have contributed to runoff through hydrophobic soil behavior, while overnight timing and critical communication gaps compounded human impacts (137 fatalities). Numerous affected structures lay outside FEMA-designated Special Flood Hazard Areas, exposing the limitations of historically calibrated static hazard maps. The findings support a transition toward impact-based warning protocols, expanded monitoring networks, and climate-aware hazard mapping for topographically complex, data-sparse regions.</p>
</abstract>
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