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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-1733</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Hot extremes following net-zero CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions in UKESM: physical drivers and role of vegetation</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rivosecchi</surname>
<given-names>Andrea</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0002-0611-6170</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dittus</surname>
<given-names>Andrea</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9598-6869</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hawkins</surname>
<given-names>Ed</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Schiemann</surname>
<given-names>Reinhard</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Fischer</surname>
<given-names>Erich</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1931-6737</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Impacts on Agriculture, Forestry and Ecosystem Services (IAFES) Division, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Changes (CMCC), Sassari, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>08</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>30</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Andrea Rivosecchi et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1733/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1733/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1733/egusphere-2026-1733.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1733/egusphere-2026-1733.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Reaching net-zero CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions is essential to halt continuing global warming and attempt to stabilise global temperatures. However, large uncertainties remain on the sign and the magnitude of the long-term responses of the climate system following anthropogenic emissions cessation. This study contributes to improving our understanding of the climate system post CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions cessation, by exploring the global and regional temperature evolution in UKESM1.2 following the TIPMIP protocol. Zero CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emission simulations, starting from global warming levels of +1.5 &amp;deg;C to +5 &amp;deg;C above pre-industrial are analysed to understand the impact of historical cumulative emissions and associated global warming level on post zero-emissions trends. We find that the global average surface air temperature (GSAT) keeps increasing in all zero CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emission UKESM1.2 projections. The increase is more pronounced at higher warming levels, approaching 0.25 &amp;deg;C per century in the +3.0 &amp;deg;C to +5.0 &amp;deg;C scenarios. Most of the warming occurs in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in the Southern Ocean, while the Northern Hemisphere land experiences a slight cooling trend. These regional cooling trends are more marked for the annual temperature maxima, with several regions across 45&amp;ndash;65&amp;deg; N experiencing cooling of &amp;gt;1 &amp;deg;C per century. We find the strongest regional cooling trend following emissions cessation in the higher warming scenarios. Here, we investigate the drivers behind the cooling trend in northeastern North America, where the cooling magnitude exceeds 1.5 &amp;deg;C per century. We find that the cooling trend is almost completely explained by thermodynamic drivers. We reconcile this finding with the UKESM1.2 dynamic vegetation changes, as the evergreen vegetation cover increases across all regions experiencing substantial cooling in the hot extremes. This finding highlights the significant regional contribution that vegetation changes can have for the attenuation of annual temperature maxima, supporting the case for their careful consideration in future mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, these results also show the limitations of highly idealised scenario protocols like TIPMIP, which set crop and pasture distributions, as well as other anthropogenic forcings, to pre-industrial values, allowing vegetation to expand freely. This highlights the importance of developing new zero emissions protocols considering other forcing agents beyond CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="30"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Natural Environment Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>NE/S007261/1</award-id>
<award-id>NE/X017850/1</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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