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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-1602</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Stromboli volcano: 2. New simulation database and probabilistic inundation maps and curves</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>de' Michieli Vitturi</surname>
<given-names>Mattia</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6750-9245</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tadini</surname>
<given-names>Alessandro</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3603-0853</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bevilacqua</surname>
<given-names>Andrea</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0724-2593</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rodríguez-Gálvez</surname>
<given-names>Juan F.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cerminara</surname>
<given-names>Matteo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5155-5872</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Esposti Ongaro</surname>
<given-names>Tomaso</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6663-5311</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Neri</surname>
<given-names>Augusto</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3536-3624</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Trolese</surname>
<given-names>Matteo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4356-4132</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Macías</surname>
<given-names>Jorge</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3010-8050</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Castro</surname>
<given-names>Manuel J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Escalante</surname>
<given-names>Cipriano</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ortega</surname>
<given-names>Sergio</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7246-2085</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>González-Vida</surname>
<given-names>José M.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4996-1972</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lorito</surname>
<given-names>Stefano</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1458-2131</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, via Cesare Battisti 53, 56125 Pisa, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>EDANYA Group, Universidad de Málaga, Avda. Cervantes 2, 29071 Málaga, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione ONT, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Roma, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>20</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>46</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1602/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1602/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1602/egusphere-2026-1602.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1602/egusphere-2026-1602.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) is the essential first step for quantifying the long-term risk posed by landslide-generated tsunamis at active volcanic islands like Stromboli, Italy. This study presents a first PTHA for Stromboli, providing a quantitative and transparent basis for risk mitigation and long-term coastal planning at Stromboli. In particular, our work integrates two new databases of numerical simulations for volcanic landslide-induced tsunamis with occurrence probabilities derived from expert elicitation (described in the companion paper by Tadini et al., submitted). We introduce a new methodology to translate elicited probabilities for landslide frequency, volume, and location into a full suite of probabilistic hazard products. The results, expressed as hazard curves, maps and profiles (5&lt;sup&gt;th&lt;/sup&gt;, 50&lt;sup&gt;th&lt;/sup&gt; and 95&lt;sup&gt;th&lt;/sup&gt; percentiles), are presented for alternative modelling setups, including different high-resolution topobathymetric models and code versions, to transparently account for epistemic uncertainty in the numerical hazard assessment. Our findings quantify a significant tsunami hazard for Stromboli&apos;s inhabited coastal areas over the next 50 years. The 95&lt;sup&gt;th&lt;/sup&gt; percentile maps indicate that inundation by at least 0.5 m of water has &amp;gt;90 % to occur along coast of Stromboli village the over the next 50 years. Furthermore, the hazard curves at critical sites show non-negligible probabilities of exceeding severe inundation depths in the same 50 years temporal frame.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri</funding-source>
<award-id>Accordo Quadro DPC-INGV 2022-2025, Convenzione Attuativa per il potenziamento delle attività di servizio, Task 2.2</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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