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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-1573</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Future projections of compound events around the Main Hawaiian Islands</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Friedrich</surname>
<given-names>Tobias</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7324-4100</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hošeková</surname>
<given-names>Lucia</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Powell</surname>
<given-names>Brian S.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Oceanography, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>07</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>29</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Tobias Friedrich et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1573/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1573/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1573/egusphere-2026-1573.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1573/egusphere-2026-1573.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The consequences of overlapping environmental stressors &amp;mdash; referred to as compound events &amp;mdash; may be more harmful to marine ecosystems than as individual stressors. Using recently conducted submesoscale-permitting future projections for the Main Hawaiian Islands, we present the first assessment of future compound events for Hawaiian waters. Our analysis focuses on surface and sub-surface heat-stress, ocean acidification, and low-oxygen events and is based on three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We show that a large fraction of ocean around Hawai&amp;lsquo;i will be subject to compound events in the near future. However, the projected event characteristics such as duration and intensity vary substantially across the region suggesting that potential ecosystem impacts may differ over short distances. Our results reveal that these spatial differences are mainly driven by considerably different magnitudes of natural variability in ocean physics and chemistry across the domain driven by mesoscale processes, while anthropogenic trends exhibit only minor spatial differences. Our analysis demonstrates that small-scale tidal variability can significantly mitigate compound events in near-shore regions including some designated Marine Protected Areas. Overall, our findings highlight the need for high-resolution numerical models as well as for an extended observation network for robust future projections of local extreme events.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="29"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration</funding-source>
<award-id>NA21OAR0170191, NA20OAR4310445</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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