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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-1569</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>The influence of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation on cool-season precipitation variability in the arid Middle East</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>de Vries</surname>
<given-names>Andries-Jan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1175-6474</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Feldstein</surname>
<given-names>Steven B.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Casselman</surname>
<given-names>Jake W.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Fragkoulidis</surname>
<given-names>Georgios</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1767-4189</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lelieveld</surname>
<given-names>Jos</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6307-3846</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Domeisen</surname>
<given-names>Daniela I. V.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1463-929X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii, Mãnoa, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Department of Atmospheric Chemistry, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Climate and Atmospheric Research center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>08</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>44</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Andries-Jan de Vries et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1569/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1569/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1569/egusphere-2026-1569.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1569/egusphere-2026-1569.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Precipitation in the Middle East exhibits large interannual variability, which is of high societal and environmental relevance given the region&amp;rsquo;s arid climate and limited water resources. While previous studies have linked the El Ni&amp;ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to interannual precipitation variability in the Middle East, the understanding of this linkage and the underlying mechanisms remain fragmented. Using observation-based datasets and a range of diagnostics, this study quantifies the influence of ENSO on Middle Eastern precipitation variability during the extended cool season (October&amp;ndash;May) and presents an integrated perspective on the driving atmospheric mechanisms. Consistent with previous studies, we find that El Ni&amp;ntilde;o is associated with increased precipitation, whereas La Ni&amp;ntilde;a is associated with decreased precipitation. This relationship is asymmetric and varies substantially within the cool season, with a strong precipitation increase during autumn and a modest increase in spring under El Ni&amp;ntilde;o conditions, and a persistent precipitation decrease throughout the cool season under La Ni&amp;ntilde;a conditions. These precipitation increases (decreases) during El Ni&amp;ntilde;o (La Ni&amp;ntilde;a) are associated with an equatorward (poleward) displacement of the subtropical jet and increased (decreased) Rossby wave breaking frequencies at the poleward flank and beneath the jet core. Simultaneously, a mid-tropospheric cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation anomaly over the Middle East strengthens (weakens) atmospheric moisture transport into the region, contributing to enhanced (reduced) tropospheric moisture content and instability. Three different atmospheric mechanisms contribute to these regional circulation patterns: (1) a zonally symmetric shift in the meridional position of the subtropical jet along with anomalies in Rossby wave breaking frequency, (2) a barotropic Rossby wave response emanating from the tropical Pacific toward the Middle East via the extratropics, and (3) a baroclinic perturbation in the tropical circulation extending westwards over the Indian Ocean and South Asia consistent with a Gill-Matsuno-type response. Co-varying circulation patterns over the Indian Ocean, associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole, likely contribute to intraseasonal variability in ENSO&apos;s influence on Middle Eastern precipitation. Our findings advance process understanding of precipitation variability in the water-scarce Middle East, having implications for seasonal prediction, flood and drought warning, and the evaluation of climate projections.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="44"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Science Foundation</funding-source>
<award-id>2202663</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung</funding-source>
<award-id>PP00P2_198896</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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