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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-154</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Sandy beaches&apos; chaos: shoreline-sandbar coupling inferred from observational time series</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Aparicio</surname>
<given-names>Marius</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0002-0093-8077</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mangiarotti</surname>
<given-names>Sylvain</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Frugier</surname>
<given-names>Salomé</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0009-4850-4922</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lacaze</surname>
<given-names>Laurent</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Graffin</surname>
<given-names>Marcan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Almar</surname>
<given-names>Rafael</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5842-658X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Institut de Mécanique des Fluides de Toulouse (IMFT), Université de Toulouse, CNRS, Toulouse, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>LEGOS (CNRS-IRD-CNES-University of Toulouse), Toulouse, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Université de Toulouse/UT-CNES-CNRS-IRD-INRAE, Centre d’Études Spatiales de la Biosphère, 18 avenue Édouard Belin, 31401 Toulouse, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>22</day>
<month>01</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>46</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Marius Aparicio et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-154/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-154/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-154/egusphere-2026-154.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-154/egusphere-2026-154.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Sandy shoreline&amp;ndash;sandbar systems exhibit complex variability arising from the interplay between hydrodynamic forcing and intrinsic morphological feedbacks. Using long-term satellite-derived shoreline and sandbar observations, we applied global polynomial modeling to reconstruct low-dimensional deterministic dynamics for four contrasting coastal sites. The resulting autonomous models reproduce key morphodynamic features, including self-sustained shoreline oscillations, shoreline&amp;ndash;sandbar coupling, and intermittent transitions between quasi-stable configurations. Nonlinear stability analyses reveal that these systems behave as chaotic oscillators, characterized by locally divergent yet globally bounded trajectories. Energetic episodes correspond to rapid shoreline&amp;ndash;sandbar exchanges, whereas long low-energy states reflect stable attractor confinement. Together, these results demonstrate that sandy coasts are governed by deterministic but &amp;nbsp;chaotic dynamics, in which internal coupling and self-organization control both variability and finite predictability. The proposed framework offers a physically consistent and data-driven approach to characterize and compare coastal morphodynamics within a unified nonlinear dynamical perspective.</p>
</abstract>
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