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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-1531</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Climate change intensifies hydrological seasonality in Denmark: Insights from an integrated model assessment</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Schneider</surname>
<given-names>Raphael</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9628-0809</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Stisen</surname>
<given-names>Simon</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6695-8412</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Troldborg</surname>
<given-names>Lars</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7366-1438</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Refsgaard</surname>
<given-names>Jens Christian</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Seidenfaden</surname>
<given-names>Ida Karlsson</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7033-1337</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Hydrology, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>10</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>45</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Raphael Schneider et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1531/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1531/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1531/egusphere-2026-1531.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1531/egusphere-2026-1531.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Temperate regions across Europe, such as Denmark, are projected to be subjected to substantial changes in the hydrological cycle due to climate change. Changes in climate can materialize as general changes in long term means, extremes, or in seasonal patterns, e.g., dampening or intensification of the seasonal contrasts. Changes in seasonal patterns can affect the hydrological cycle in various ways, due to the interlinkage between hydrological compartments. To detect, track and quantify the impact of changes in climate and seasonal patterns, integrated hydrological modelling is needed. This makes Denmark an ideal test case due to the established integrated and physically based National Hydrological Model of Denmark (DK-model). Utilizing climate projections from 17 RCP8.5 climate models, downscaled and bias-corrected for Denmark, we calculate climate change impacts on both overall values and seasonality for the variables soil moisture, streamflow, shallow and deeper groundwater to the end of the century. Moreover, standardized hydrological drought indices are calculated for the same variables. Climate change projections point towards a future with higher annual precipitation, mainly due to wetter winters, while climatic water balance deficits increase during summer; thus, intensifying the seasonal contrast. The increased contrast is reappearing in the fast-responding hydrological variable, soil moisture; while streamflow and shallow groundwater clearly reproduce increase during the wetter winter, the summer signal differs. The deep groundwater systems experience higher future groundwater heads across the entire year. Common for all variables is a larger seasonality, defined as contrast between intra-annual low and highs. Notably, the ensemble of hydrological projections is more in agreement regarding the seasonal contrast than on the direction of absolute change, with results agreeing for 85 % to 99 % of the area of Denmark on increased seasonality, whereas only agreeing for 50 % to 98 % on the absolute direction of that change. The drought indices exhibit a similar seasonal change, with more droughts during summer and more wet anomalies during winter for soil moisture, while summer droughts for streamflow and shallow groundwater partially are buffered by wetter winters and the related recharge increase. In summary, the results indicate that despite considerable increases in precipitation, projected climate change for Denmark is expected to enhance hydrological seasonality instead of producing a uniform transition to a wetter regime, potentially impacting the climate adaptation and mitigation effort, agricultural yields, and water supply.</p>
</abstract>
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