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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-1504</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>A data assimilation scheme to improve groundwater state estimation in the Aqui-FR modelling platform</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Manlay</surname>
<given-names>Adrien</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9981-2994</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vergnes</surname>
<given-names>Jean-Pierre</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Munier</surname>
<given-names>Simon</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7176-8584</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Habets</surname>
<given-names>Florence</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1950-0921</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>BRGM – French Geological Survey, F-45060 Orléans, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Laboratory of Geology – École Normale Supérieure, PSL University, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, CNRS UMR 8538, F-75005 Paris, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Météo-France, CNRS, Univ. Toulouse, CNRM, Toulouse, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>18</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>33</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Adrien Manlay et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1504/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1504/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1504/egusphere-2026-1504.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1504/egusphere-2026-1504.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Groundwater is a key resource for human activities, and anticipating its evolutions months in advance is a major challenge for stakeholders. Hydrological model for subsurface flows can be used for groundwater level forecasts. However, due to uncertainties in the model&apos;s forcings and parameters, forecast initial state estimation may be inaccurate. We propose the implementation of a sequential data assimilation (DA) scheme within the Aqui-FR modelling platform, aiming at improving groundwater state estimation over a regional scale for future seasonal forecasting system.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We assimilated in situ groundwater level observations into a regional hydrogeological model, using a Localized Ensemble Kalman Filter (LEnKF). Two localization methods are assessed to evaluate the best way to propagate data assimilation increment from observation sites into the model space. A distance based method is compared to a correlation method, based on a variogram analysis.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Both method show good performances to improve groundwater head simulations, with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) reduction of 90% compared to a reference simulation without DA [open loop (OL) run]. Experiments with validation observations sites show that the correlation method lead to a more robust DA analysis, with less degradation of the simulation compared to OL run and measurements.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Hindcast experiments using reanalysis of atmospheric forcing suggest that state assimilation, in context of inertial aquifers, can help improve forecast within a six-month range. The persistence of DA correction varies within the model space domain and may be due by an initial calibration that could be improved. After a three months lead time, 75% of assimilated observation sites still show an improvement of RMSE compared to OL.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Agence Nationale de la Recherche</funding-source>
<award-id>ANR-22-PEXO-0003</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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