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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-1438</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Predicting Forecast Errors with Diffusion Model for Uncertainty Quantification in Wind Speed Nowcasting</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhu</surname>
<given-names>Yanwei</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Atencia</surname>
<given-names>Aitor</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dabernig</surname>
<given-names>Markus</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>Yong</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4246-6525</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhou</surname>
<given-names>Shuyan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>GeoSphere Austria, Vienna, Austria</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>CMA Earth System Modelling and Prediction Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>21</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>23</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Yanwei Zhu et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1438/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1438/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1438/egusphere-2026-1438.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1438/egusphere-2026-1438.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Weather forecasts are inherently uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and unavoidable errors. Ensemble forecasting is the established approach for quantifying the uncertainty. However, it is both computationally expensive and inherently prone to under-dispersion, as it simulates multiple atmospheric trajectories with a finite number of members. In this study, we propose a novel paradigm that achieves uncertainty quantification by directly predicting forecast errors, thereby bypassing the need to simulate multiple trajectories. We employ a denoising diffusion probabilistic model for this task, as its generative capabilities are well-suited for learning high-dimensional distributions. By stochastically sampling from the learned distribution and adding the generated errors to the physics-based nowcast, an ensemble nowcast can be constructed efficiently without the need for perturbation generation or parallel model running. The proposed approach is applied to 10-meter wind speed nowcast, which is important but has received relatively limited attention in diffusion-based weather forecasting studies. Results show that the diffusion model effectively captures the spatial structure and probabilistic characteristics of forecast errors, leading to improved deterministic accuracy and a well-calibrated ensemble. In addition, different noise schedules for the diffusion process are systematically evaluated. The results indicate that the Cosine schedule provides the most reliable performance for uncertainty prediction, offering practical guidance for configuring diffusion models in weather forecasting applications.</p>
</abstract>
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