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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-1315</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Inferring European Fossil Fuel CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; Emissions using TROPOMI NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; Data and Sector-Based NO&lt;sub&gt;x&lt;/sub&gt;:CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; Emission Ratios</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Schooling</surname>
<given-names>Chlöe N.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7892-9715</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Feng</surname>
<given-names>Liang</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Super</surname>
<given-names>Ingrid</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8252-5983</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Palmer</surname>
<given-names>Paul I.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1487-0969</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Air Quality and Emissions Research, TNO, P.O. Box 80015, 3508 TA Utrecht, the Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>08</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>23</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Chlöe N. Schooling et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1315/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1315/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1315/egusphere-2026-1315.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1315/egusphere-2026-1315.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Accurate monitoring of fossil fuel CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; (ffCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;) emissions is essential for tracking climate mitigation, yet natural carbon-cycle fluxes often obscure human-induced signals in atmospheric observations. This study presents a satellite-driven data assimilation framework that uses nitrogen oxides (NO&lt;sub&gt;x&lt;/sub&gt; = NO + NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;) &amp;minus; short-lived trace gases co-emitted with CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; &amp;minus; to estimate ffCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions. We estimate European NO&lt;sub&gt;x&lt;/sub&gt; emissions for 2021 by assimilating TROPOMI NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; observations into an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) framework, optimised within the GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport model. We use a computationally efficient offline treatment of NO&lt;sub&gt;x&lt;/sub&gt; chemistry, enabling large-ensemble inversions while retaining sensitivity to changes in photochemistry. Assimilating these data leads to a systematic reduction in the state vector uncertainty, with a mean ensemble-based error reduction of 4.2&amp;ndash;5.7 %, and an overall improvement in model agreement with observations that corresponds to an annual correlation increase, ∆&lt;em&gt;r &lt;/em&gt;=0.12. By leveraging sector-specific NO&lt;sub&gt;x&lt;/sub&gt;:CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emission ratios, we translate our posterior NO&lt;sub&gt;x&lt;/sub&gt; flux estimates into improved ffCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; estimates that capture enhanced seasonal variability. Our inferred ffCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions exhibit elevated values in autumn and winter, spatially concentrated over major source regions and consistent with surface temperature variability. Independent evaluation against &lt;em&gt;in situ&lt;/em&gt; measurements confirms significant improvements in mean error statistics. While OCO-2 CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; column data remain dominated by biogenic signals, our NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;-driven approach successfully isolates the fossil fuel component. This study demonstrates the potential of ensemble data assimilation and reduced-complexity chemistry to provide physically consistent constraints on European ffCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; estimates, establishing a vital foundation for future joint NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;&amp;ndash;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; inversion systems.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="23"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>HORIZON EUROPE Climate, Energy and Mobility</funding-source>
<award-id>101082194</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>National Centre for Earth Observation</funding-source>
<award-id>NE/R016518/1</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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