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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-1310</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Stromboli volcano: 1. Review of historical sources and expert elicitation findings</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tadini</surname>
<given-names>Alessandro</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3603-0853</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bevilacqua</surname>
<given-names>Andrea</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0724-2593</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>de' Michieli Vitturi</surname>
<given-names>Mattia</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6750-9245</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bonilauri</surname>
<given-names>Emmie M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Harris</surname>
<given-names>Andrew J. L.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cerminara</surname>
<given-names>Matteo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5155-5872</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Esposti Ongaro</surname>
<given-names>Tomaso</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6663-5311</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Neri</surname>
<given-names>Augusto</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3536-3624</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Paris</surname>
<given-names>Raphaël</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Pistolesi</surname>
<given-names>Marco</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5096-3708</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Trolese</surname>
<given-names>Matteo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4356-4132</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rodríguez-Gálvez</surname>
<given-names>Juan F.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Andronico</surname>
<given-names>Daniele</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bertagnini</surname>
<given-names>Antonella</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Calvari</surname>
<given-names>Sonia</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8189-5499</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Casalbore</surname>
<given-names>Daniele</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cassidy</surname>
<given-names>Michael</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Civico</surname>
<given-names>Riccardo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5015-2155</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Del Bello</surname>
<given-names>Elisabetta</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8043-7410</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Di Roberto</surname>
<given-names>Alessio</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1167-8290</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Fornaciai</surname>
<given-names>Alessandro</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4829-4928</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Grezio</surname>
<given-names>Anita</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6848-7589</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13">
<sup>13</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gurioli</surname>
<given-names>Lucia</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5066-5153</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Harbitz</surname>
<given-names>Carl B.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4280-7497</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lacanna</surname>
<given-names>Giorgio</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Løvholt</surname>
<given-names>Finn</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1019-7321</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Marani</surname>
<given-names>Michael</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12">
<sup>12</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Pompilio</surname>
<given-names>Massimo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0742-0679</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ricci</surname>
<given-names>Tullio</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rosi</surname>
<given-names>Mauro</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sandri</surname>
<given-names>Laura</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3254-2336</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13">
<sup>13</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Urgeles</surname>
<given-names>Roger</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9438-1753</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff14">
<sup>14</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Voloschina</surname>
<given-names>Marija</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, via Cesare Battisti 53, 56125 Pisa, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS, IRD, OPGC, Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, F-63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Università di Pisa, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, via Santa Maria 53, 56126 Pisa, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Universidad de Málaga, EDANYA Group, Avda. Cervantes, 2. 29071 Málaga, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo, Piazza Roma 2, 95125 Catania, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Università Sapienza, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Piazzale Aldo Moro 5, 00185 Roma, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>University of Birmingham, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Edgbaston Birmingham, B15 2TT,  United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma 1, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Roma, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Natural Hazards Department, Sandakerveien 140, 0484 Oslo, Norway</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>Università degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, via G. La Pira 4, 50121 Firenze, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff11">
<label>11</label>
<addr-line>Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Offshore Energy Department, Sandakerveien 140, 0484 Oslo, Norway</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff12">
<label>12</label>
<addr-line>Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Scienze Marine, Via Gobetti 101, 40129 Bologna, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff13">
<label>13</label>
<addr-line>Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, viale C. Berti Pichat 6/2, 40127 Bologna, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff14">
<label>14</label>
<addr-line>Departament de Geociències Marines, Institut de Ciències del Mar (CSIC), Pg. Marítim de la Barceloneta 37-49, 08003    Barcelona, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>14</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>46</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Alessandro Tadini et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1310/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1310/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1310/egusphere-2026-1310.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1310/egusphere-2026-1310.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Active volcanic islands, such as Stromboli in southern Italy, are sites where tsunamis generated by volcanic activity could be frequent and potentially destructive. Stromboli Island has experienced several landslides over the past decades, some of which have generated destructive tsunamis. This paper is part of a broader project aimed at developing a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard assessment (PTHA) for Stromboli. We present here a review of historical tsunamis sourced from Stromboli, their correlation with explosive activity, and the results of an expert elicitation on tsunamigenic landslides.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In our review of historical tsunamis, we identified 16 events from 1879 to 2024, grouped into three classes based on the degree of inundation observed in the village of Stromboli, ranging from few ten to few hundred of meters inundation distances, the latter comparable to the widely documented December 2002 tsunami event. Four historical tsunamis (in 1879, 1921, 1924, and 1959 CE) have been critically discussed for the first time. Over the past 150 years, ~69 % = 11/16 of the catalogued tsunamis, with 90 % confidence [45 %, 87 %], were associated with paroxysms, while only ~27 % of historical paroxysms were associated with catalogued tsunamis, confidence [16 %, 40 %]. Similar conditional probabilities and uncertainty intervals were estimated from 1916 to 2025, excluding the tsunamis without significant inundation. The expert elicitation was divided in three parts. Part I provided estimates and uncertainty quantification of the number of tsunamigenic landslides at Stromboli (with volumes &amp;ge; 1 &amp;times; 10&lt;sup&gt;6&lt;/sup&gt; m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt;) in the past and of those expected in the next 50 years. Part II focused on the probabilities of different triggering mechanisms in the next 50 years. Part III quantified the probabilities of different tsunamigenic landslides (volume and positions) along the Sciara del Fuoco in the next 50 years. Results of the expert elicitation indicate that return periods of tsunamigenic landslides at Stromboli in the next 50 years have median values in the order of 10&amp;ndash;12 years (with uncertainty from 3 to 50 years), and a median probability of their occurrence along the Sciara del Fuoco of either 82 or 86 % (depending on the weighting scheme used in the elicitation). Results of part III indicate slightly higher median probabilities for landslides occurring at elevation 300 to 700 m a.s.l. along the Sciara del Fuoco with volumes 1&amp;ndash;5 &amp;times; 10&lt;sup&gt;6&lt;/sup&gt; m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; as compared to other elevation and volume ranges.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="46"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri</funding-source>
<award-id>Accordo Quadro DPC-INGV 2022-2025, Convenzione Attuativa per il potenziamento delle attività di servizio, Task 2.2</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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</article>