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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-1010</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Detection of agricultural flash droughts using impact-informed thresholds</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ubeda-Trujillo</surname>
<given-names>Ingrid</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1349-4682</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Werner</surname>
<given-names>Micha</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4198-5638</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bertini</surname>
<given-names>Claudia</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3315-1801</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Coenders-Gerrits</surname>
<given-names>Miriam</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7340-4685</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jewitt</surname>
<given-names>Graham</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7444-7855</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, P.O. Box 3015, 2601 DA Delft, the Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Delft University of Technology, Department Water Management. Section, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, the Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua, UNAN-Managua. Rigoberto López Pérez roundabout, 150m east.</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>10</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>27</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Ingrid Ubeda-Trujillo et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1010/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1010/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1010/egusphere-2026-1010.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1010/egusphere-2026-1010.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>A rapid and sustained evaporative stress causes soils to lose moisture within days to weeks during sensitive crop phases. This rapid soil depletion can severely affect agricultural systems and manifest as events commonly referred to as agricultural flash droughts (AFDs). AFDs are often detected using literature-based thresholds that assume uniformity across time and space. This may, however, poorly represent the occurrence and impacts of AFDs in local contexts and limit usefulness to decision-makers who require context-specific information. This study aims to overcomes these limitations by introducing an impact-informed calibration of the Standardized Evaporative Stress Ratio (SESR) by linking SESR thresholds to observed crop losses. Thresholds are derived temporally across crop management periods and spatially across soil textures. The proposed calibration approach is tested in Nicaragua&amp;rsquo;s Dry Corridor of Central America, where rainfed agriculture predominates. Results suggest that although SESR exhibits coherent evaporative stress signals during years with drought-induced crop losses, literature-based thresholds showed limited skill in translating these signals into agriculturally relevant flash drought detection across different crop management periods and soil textures. Threshold performance varies across crop management periods and soil textures. Reliable thresholds could not be detected in sandy soils, whereas clay-rich soils exhibited stable and skilful thresholds. In loamy&amp;ndash;silty soils, skilful thresholds were mainly observed during March and the pre-sowing period, with limited skill thereafter. Validation results also showed that calibrated thresholds, within the crop periods-soil combinations identified as skilful, successfully detected flash drought events associated with crop losses more frequently than those reported in the literature. Together, these findings indicate that monitoring AFD using impact-informed thresholds has an operational value for drought management and can support better decision-making.</p>
</abstract>
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