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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-6498</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>A Systemic Shift towards Hydroclimatic Whiplash in India: Event-Based Evidence of Escalating Dry-Wet Transitions since 1951</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bhattacharjee</surname>
<given-names>Debankana</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dhanya</surname>
<given-names>Chandrika Thulaseedharan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0206-5193</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Research Scholar, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Indian Institute of  Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Indian Institute of  Technology, Delhi</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>17</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>30</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Debankana Bhattacharjee</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2025-6498/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2025-6498/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2025-6498/egusphere-2025-6498.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2025-6498/egusphere-2025-6498.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the evolution of hydroclimatic extremes, dry spells (DS), wet spells (WS), and their rapid transitions (whiplash) across India from 1951 till 2019. A marked reorganization of extremes emerged around the 1980s regime shift, characterized by widespread intensification of WS and a 40 % rise in DS-affected grids experiencing fewer but longer events. Using Event Coincidence Analysis, trigger relationships between extreme DS and WS are quantified, revealing that trigger coincidence rates exceeded 0.8 after the mid-1980s and increased spatially by nearly 49 % over the west coast, Central India, and the Northeast. Disaggregating transitions demonstrated an emerging dominance of dry-to-wet (DTW) behavior, with an increase of ~14 %, reflecting reorganized monsoon feedbacks. Quantification of whiplash severity revealed a 13 % and 8.7 % rise in extreme and severe whiplash frequencies and a 26.6 % increase in grids exhibiting simultaneous high frequency, duration, and intensity. Spatially, the southwest coast and northern India exhibit &amp;lsquo;persistently high&amp;rsquo; risk with no recovery since 1951, while the east coast and central India show &amp;lsquo;emerging&amp;rsquo; volatility. Crucially, this intensification translates into a quantifiable &amp;lsquo;climate penalty&amp;rsquo; on agriculture: post-2000 wheat yields show persistent negative anomalies with an increase in exposure to extreme whiplash risk, which in turn demands an immediate pivot in adaptation and resource planning.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="30"/></counts>
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