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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-4590</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Exploring the applicability of Censored Shifted Gamma Distribution (CSGD) error model to radar based rainfall nowcasts: A UK case study</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lin</surname>
<given-names>Hung-Ming</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0000-6839-6062</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>Li-Pen</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0981-8397</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Han</surname>
<given-names>Jen-Yu</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil Engineering, National Taiwan University, 10617 Taipei, Taiwan</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, SW7 2AZ London, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>06</day>
<month>01</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>45</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Hung-Ming Lin et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2025-4590/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2025-4590/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2025-4590/egusphere-2025-4590.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2025-4590/egusphere-2025-4590.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Radar based rainfall nowcasting plays a critical role in hydrological operations such as stormwater management and flood early warning. Compared with Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), it offers higher short-term accuracy and lower computational costs. However, operational uptake remains constrained by two key challenges: (i) uncertainties in nowcasting algorithms and (ii) discrepancies between radar rainfall estimates and ground based measurements. Focusing on the latter, this study explores the potential of the Censored Shifted Gamma Distribution (CSGD) error model to adjust high-resolution radar nowcasts using gauge observations, thus improving their hydrological applicability. The proposed framework involves calibrating both climatological and conditional CSGD models at gauge locations and interpolating parameters across the study area. Deterministic and ensemble nowcasts generated by the Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) are subsequently adjusted using linear and non-linear CSGD models. In this process, predicted rainfall intensities are transformed into cumulative distribution functions (CDFs), enabling probabilistic nowcasting. The median of the CSGD-derived distributions is then applied as the adjusted rainfall intensity, improving alignment with ground observations. Results suggest that combining STEPS ensemble nowcasting with the non-linear CSGD model generally yields the best performance, with error reductions approaching 6 % at the 6 h lead time (hourly scale) and at the 3 h lead time (5 min scale) and uncertainty reductions approaching 20 % across selected events. These findings demonstrate the potential of extending the CSGD method &amp;ndash; originally developed for daily satellite precipitation estimation &amp;ndash; to hourly and sub-hourly timescales. This advancement enhances the reliability of radar based predictions and their value for hydrological decision-making.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="45"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Science and Technology Council</funding-source>
<award-id>113-2923-M-002-001-MY4</award-id>
<award-id>114-2625-M-002-011-</award-id>
<award-id>114-2124-M-002-007-</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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