Greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols have been the main contributors to climate change. Here, future aerosols and GHGs impacts on global and regional surface air temperature (SAT) are assessed using machine learning. We show that, following a carbon-neutral pathway, global SAT rapidly increases by 0.8 °C from 2015 to 2050, with 0.6 °C attributed to the substantial decline in aerosols. Considering both the varying aerosols and GHGs, temperatures during 2015–2035 under the carbon-neutral scenario are even higher than those under the high-emission scenario, demonstrating that the near-term warming related to aerosol reduction is noteworthy, although carbon neutral scenario is beneficial to slow down the warming. If CO<sub>2</sub> is reduced to mitigate the warming caused by aerosol reduction, it has to decline from 400 ppm to 340–350 ppm. This study emphasizes the importance of anthropogenic forcings in regulating climate change and reveals the dominant role of aerosols in modulating climate in the near-term carbon neutral future.