<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" specific-use="SMUR" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-804</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Global patterns and drivers of climate-driven fires in a warming world</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bhattarai</surname>
<given-names>Hemraj</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7132-6660</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Val Martin</surname>
<given-names>Maria</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9715-0504</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sitch</surname>
<given-names>Stephen</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Yung</surname>
<given-names>David H. Y.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tai</surname>
<given-names>Amos P. K.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5189-6263</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, The Chinese  University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation, School of Biosciences, University of  Sheffield, Sheffield, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>State Key Laboratory of Agrobiotechnology and Institute of Environment, Energy and  Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>05</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>28</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Hemraj Bhattarai et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-804/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-804/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-804/egusphere-2025-804.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-804/egusphere-2025-804.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Wildfires increasingly threaten human lives, ecosystems, and climate, yet a comprehensive understanding of the factors driving their future dynamics and emissions remains elusive, hampering mitigation efforts. In this study, we assessed how future climate change would influence global burned area (BA) and carbon emissions between 2015 to 2100. Using the Community Land Model (version 5) with active biogeochemistry and fire, we simulated the effects of climate drivers such as temperature, precipitation, and CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; levels under two future pathways (low warming, SSP1-2.6, and high warming, SSP3-7.0). Our model reproduces historical BA magnitude and spatial distribution, projecting a global BA increase of +6400 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; yr&lt;sup&gt;&amp;ndash;1&lt;/sup&gt; under SSP1-2.6 and +7500 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; yr&lt;sup&gt;&amp;ndash;1&lt;/sup&gt; under SSP3-7.0. While tropical regions remain nearly stable, boreal regions experience the most significant rise, with BA increasing by +5200 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; yr&lt;sup&gt;-&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;sup&gt;1&lt;/sup&gt; in SSP1-2.6 and +8500 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; yr&lt;sup&gt;-&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;sup&gt;1&lt;/sup&gt; in SSP3-7.0, an overall increase of 200 %. This rise is accompanied by increased carbon emissions of +4 Tg yr&lt;sup&gt;-&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;sup&gt;1 &lt;/sup&gt;and +7 Tg yr&lt;sup&gt;-&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;sup&gt;1 &lt;/sup&gt;under SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0, respectively. The main drivers of these changes are reduced soil moisture and increased fuel supply (i.e., vegetation carbon) under a warming climate, with CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; fertilization enhancing biomass growth and further contributing to higher fire risks. These findings underscore the need for integrating climate-driven wildfire dynamics into global management and policy frameworks to mitigate future fire-related threats.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="28"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Chinese University of Hong Kong</funding-source>
<award-id>4930820</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>UK Research and Innovation</funding-source>
<award-id>MR/T019867/1</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
</back>
</article>