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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-700</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Drivers of high frequency extreme sea level around Northern Europe &amp;ndash; Synergies between recurrent neural networks and Random Forest</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Heuzé</surname>
<given-names>Céline</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8850-5868</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Carlstedt</surname>
<given-names>Linn</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0001-0261-7149</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Poropat</surname>
<given-names>Lea</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9711-495X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Reese</surname>
<given-names>Heather</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2128-7787</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Research and Development, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Gothenburg, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>National Centre for Climate Research, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>21</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>30</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Céline Heuzé et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-700/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-700/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-700/egusphere-2025-700.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-700/egusphere-2025-700.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Northern Europe is particularly vulnerable to extreme sea level events as most of its large population, financial and logistics centres are located by the coastline. Policy makers need information to plan for near- and longer-term events. There is a consensus that for Europe, in response to climate change, changes to extreme sea level will be caused by mean sea level rise rather than changes in its drivers, meaning that determining current drivers will aid such planning. Here we determine from explainable AI the meteorological and hydrological drivers of high frequency extreme sea level at nine locations on the wider North Sea &amp;ndash; Baltic coast using Long Short Term Memory (LSTM, a type of deep recurrent neural network) and the simpler Random Forest regression on hourly tide gauge data. LSTM is optimised for targeting the excess values, or periods of prolonged high sea level; Random Forest, the block maxima, or most extreme peaks in sea level. Through permutation feature of the LSTM, we show that the most important driver of the periods of high sea level over the region is the westerly winds, whereas the Random Forest reveals that the driver of the most extreme peaks depends on the geometry of the local coastline. LSTM is most accurate overall, although predicting the highest values without overfitting the model remains challenging. Despite being less accurate, Random Forest agrees well with the LSTM findings, making it suitable for predictions of extreme sea level events at locations with short and/or patchy tide gauge observations.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="30"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas</funding-source>
<award-id>2020-00982</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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