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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-6288</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Natural disturbances increasingly affect Europe&amp;rsquo;s most mature and carbon-rich forests</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Besnard</surname>
<given-names>Simon</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1137-103X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Viana-Soto</surname>
<given-names>Alba</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5595-2170</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hartmann</surname>
<given-names>Henrik</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Patacca</surname>
<given-names>Marco</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Heinrich</surname>
<given-names>Viola H. A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kowalski</surname>
<given-names>Katja</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Santoro</surname>
<given-names>Maurizio</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3339-6991</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>De Keersmaecker</surname>
<given-names>Wanda</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Van De Kerchove</surname>
<given-names>Ruben</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Herold</surname>
<given-names>Martin</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Senf</surname>
<given-names>Cornelius</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2389-2158</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Technical University of Munich, School of Life Sciences, Earth Observation for Ecosystem Management, Freising, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Julius Kühn Institute (JKI) – Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants, Institute for Forest Protection, Quedlinburg, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Faculty of Forest Sciences and Forest Ecology, Georg-August-University, Büsgenweg 5, 37077 Göttingen, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Department of Biogeochemical Processes, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans Knoell Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Sustainable Forest Ecosystems, Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>Gamma Remote Sensing, 3073 Gümligen, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>Environmental Intelligence, Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), Mol, Belgium</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>19</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>27</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Simon Besnard et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-6288/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-6288/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-6288/egusphere-2025-6288.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-6288/egusphere-2025-6288.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>&lt;span style=&quot;font-weight: 400;&quot;&gt;Europe&apos;s forests store nearly 40 PgC and provide a critical carbon sink of ~0.2 PgC yr&lt;/span&gt;&lt;sup&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;font-weight: 400;&quot;&gt;-1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;font-weight: 400;&quot;&gt;, yet climate-driven disturbances increasingly threaten this capacity. Although disturbance rates from windthrow and bark beetle outbreaks have risen in recent decades, it remains unclear whether these events increasingly affect the oldest and largest trees, which store a disproportionate share of carbon. Here, we combine three decades of satellite-derived disturbance maps with spatially explicit data on forest age, biomass, and species composition to reveal patterns of structural selectivity across Europe. We show that natural disturbances have shifted toward older, carbon-rich stands, with disturbed forest area &amp;gt; 60 years old nearly tripling since 2010 (from 0.38 to 1.06 Mha). This structural shift is most pronounced in spruce-dominated regions of Central Europe (effect size = 1), where compound heat and drought events have amplified susceptibility to bark beetles. Biomass losses from natural disturbances in spruce forests increased eightfold between the early (2011&lt;span&gt;&amp;ndash;&lt;/span&gt;2016) and recent (2017&lt;span&gt;&amp;ndash;&lt;/span&gt;2023) periods. Trend-based projections indicate that, if current patterns of structural selectivity persist, natural disturbances could expose biomass carbon stocks equivalent to approximately 20 % of Europe&amp;rsquo;s contemporary forest carbon sink by 2040 (~0.05 PgC yr &lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; or ~0.7 PgC cumulative). Our findings reveal a previously unquantified vulnerability: climate-driven disturbances increasingly affect forest structures with high per-hectare carbon stocks, amplifying disturbance-related carbon exposure and weakening the long-term effectiveness of Europe&amp;rsquo;s forest carbon sink. Adaptive management strategies that promote structural and compositional diversification in high-risk regions will be critical to stabilise forest carbon &amp;nbsp;storage under continued climate change.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="27"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Horizon 2020</funding-source>
<award-id>101084481</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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