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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-6172</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Nordic Overturning Increases as AMOC Weakens in Response to Global Warming</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Roewer</surname>
<given-names>Sasha</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Fiedler</surname>
<given-names>Lukas</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7164-5557</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Årthun</surname>
<given-names>Marius</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4500-1691</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Huiskamp</surname>
<given-names>Willem</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6615-6348</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rahmstorf</surname>
<given-names>Stefan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6786-7723</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>RD1- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Brandenburg, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>currently at: IMPRS-ESM, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>currently at: Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>23</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>22</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Sasha Roewer et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-6172/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-6172/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-6172/egusphere-2025-6172.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-6172/egusphere-2025-6172.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is weakening in response to global warming, while Nordic Seas Overturning Circulation (NOC) is projected to increase. So far, no causal link has been proposed between these two opposing trends. Here we propose that a density reduction in the subpolar North Atlantic will weaken the AMOC by reducing the density difference with lighter waters further south, while at the same time strengthening the NOC by increasing the density difference with the heavier waters further north. Using high resolution climate model data and a box model, we find that in response to combined global warming and freshwater input the NOC initially increases moderately as the AMOC weakens, while a tipping point may be reached later if deep convection in the Nordic Seas shuts down and the NOC collapses together with the AMOC.</p>
</abstract>
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