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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-5875</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Temporal models for the occurrence of Etna eruptions and implications for hazard assessment</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sandri</surname>
<given-names>Laura</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3254-2336</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Garcia</surname>
<given-names>Alexander</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9196-8452</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Scollo</surname>
<given-names>Simona</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mereu</surname>
<given-names>Luigi</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0303-1171</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Prestifilippo</surname>
<given-names>Michele</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5593-1775</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo, Catania, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>04</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>25</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Laura Sandri et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-5875/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-5875/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-5875/egusphere-2025-5875.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-5875/egusphere-2025-5875.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Mt Etna volcanic activity is broadly divided into flank eruptions and summit paroxysms. Here, building on previously-available literature and data on the start time of these events, we collate two separate catalogs of the two activity types. Then we separately model their temporal occurrence. The catalog of flank eruptions, spanning the last 400 years, has been modelled by means of the most widely used renewal models, among which the best one (through Akaike Information Criterion) is the Brownian Passage Time. The catalog of summit paroxysms, covering the period 1986&amp;ndash;2022, according to our cluster analysis is best characterized by 12 clusters of paroxysms. We separately analyze the inter-event times between onset times of successive clusters of paroxysms (inter-cluster inter-event times) and the inter-event times between successive paroxysms within clusters (intra-cluster inter-event times). Again, the Brownian Passage Time is the best-fitting model, obviously with very different parameters in the two cases. We test the best-fitting models by checking their ability to reproduce features of the real catalogs. Finally, we provide an example of how to use in practice such temporal models in the context of probabilistic hazard assessment, showing a possible use in the case of tephra fallout hazard from summit paroxysms.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Ministero dell&apos;Istruzione e del Merito</funding-source>
<award-id>Pianeta Dinamico (CUP D53J19000170001) funded by MIUR (“Fondo finalizzato al rilancio degli investimenti delle amministrazioni centrali dello Stato e allo sviluppo del Paese,” legge 145/2018), Tema 8 – PANACEA 2021-2023</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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