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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-5703</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Equatorial storm surge risks revealed by the 2001 tropical cyclone Vamei</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Watanabe</surname>
<given-names>Masashi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Switzer</surname>
<given-names>Adam D.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4352-7852</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Arachchige</surname>
<given-names>Erandani Lakshani Widana</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chua</surname>
<given-names>Constance Ting</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Puah</surname>
<given-names>Jun Yu</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9379-8936</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tan</surname>
<given-names>Elaine</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6667-4313</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Shaw</surname>
<given-names>Timothy A.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9007-637X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lallemant</surname>
<given-names>David</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5759-9972</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, N2-01A-15, 50 Nanyang Avenue, 639798, Singapore</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Drive, 639798, Singapore</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Tohoku University, International Research Institute of Disaster Science, 468-1 Aoba Aramaki, Aoba, Sendai, 980-8572,  Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>25</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>26</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Masashi Watanabe et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-5703/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-5703/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-5703/egusphere-2025-5703.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-5703/egusphere-2025-5703.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Tropical Cyclone Vamei, which emerged at 1.5&amp;deg; N on December 27, 2001, challenged the prevailing idea that near-equatorial areas are safe from storm surges, as it resulted in localised flooding in Singapore and Malaysia, revealing a rare yet critical regional hazard. Thus, we investigated storm surge risk assessment in Singapore based on numerical simulations using Delft3D in multiple scenarios. We first validated the accuracy of our simulation results by comparing them with nine observation points around Singapore Island. We then conducted the simulations as a suite of alternative scenarios created by moving the known track of Tropical Cyclone Vamei, modelling more intense storms corresponding to a 1-in-1000-year scenario and considering future sea level rise induced by global warming. When a 1000-year probability of occurrence was assumed, the maximum storm surge height around Singapore increased to 0.595 m. For a 1000-year cyclone with its path shifted 0.8&amp;deg; southward, sea level rise scenarios of +0.7 m and +2.0 m resulted in inundation areas of 34.5 km&amp;sup2; and 90.7 km&amp;sup2;, respectively. While the calculated storm surge height remained largely unchanged despite future sea level rise, the inundation area in Singapore expanded significantly. This indicates that sea level rise is a primary contributor to this expansion, highlighting the importance of considering future sea levels in inundation assessments. Further research is necessary to assess potential changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones impacting Singapore under future climate scenarios.</p>
</abstract>
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