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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-5485</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Consistency of seismic hazard estimates from a physics-based earthquake simulator: a case study in south-eastern Spain</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gómez-Novell</surname>
<given-names>Octavi</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7573-2885</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Visini</surname>
<given-names>Francesco</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9582-6443</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Herrero-Barbero</surname>
<given-names>Paula</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Álvarez-Gómez</surname>
<given-names>José Antonio</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2814-3172</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>García-Mayordomo</surname>
<given-names>Julián</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>CN Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, CSIC, Madrid, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Chieti, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>22</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>37</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Octavi Gómez-Novell et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-5485/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-5485/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-5485/egusphere-2025-5485.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-5485/egusphere-2025-5485.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Estimating seismic hazard is crucial for enhancing societal resilience and risk mitigation strategies. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is the current standard framework, traditionally relying on empirical earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs) and ground-motion models. In this framework, physics-based earthquake cycle simulators are emerging as powerful tools in PSHA, capable of replicating observed seismicity and seismic hazard statistics. Here, we present a quantitative consistency evaluation of physics-based PSHA models at the Eastern Betic Shear Zone in south-eastern Spain against both historical macroseismic intensity data and instrumental ground-shaking records. We use synthetic catalogues from RSQSim earthquake-cycle simulations to construct two physics-based ERFs that we pipeline into a PSHA calculation. Results indicate that the physics-based ERFs derived from the best-performing simulation model, previously ranked against empirical benchmarks, achieve the best overall agreement with observed macroseismic intensities and acceleration records at 10 sites, outperforming both the lower-performing simulation and a traditional area-source model. Our findings highlight that the incorporation of physics-based models into a PSHA framework is reliable, enabling the inclusion of rupture behaviour and fault-system interactions, key challenges in PSHA. We also advocate for the complementarity of physics-based models with traditional approaches in PSHA to better capture epistemic uncertainties in the hazard representation.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="37"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>NextGenerationEU</funding-source>
<award-id>MMT24-IGME-02</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Agencia Estatal de Investigación</funding-source>
<award-id>PID2021‐124155NB‐C31</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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