<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" specific-use="SMUR" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-5292</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Overshoot and (ir)reversibility to 2300 in two CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;-emissions driven Earth System Models</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Smith</surname>
<given-names>Chris</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ramme</surname>
<given-names>Lennart</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8307-2493</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wells</surname>
<given-names>Christopher D.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1958-0984</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gjermundsen</surname>
<given-names>Ada</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2053-4689</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>Hongmei</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2912-1837</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ilyina</surname>
<given-names>Tatiana</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3475-4842</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Muralidhar</surname>
<given-names>Adakudlu</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bourgeois</surname>
<given-names>Timothée</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9367-464X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Schwinger</surname>
<given-names>Jörg</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7525-6882</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Romero-Prieto</surname>
<given-names>Alejandro</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0005-8522-7697</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>Chao</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2556-0891</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mauritzen</surname>
<given-names>Cecilie</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5956-8811</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Energy, Climate and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Geesthacht, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>NORCE Climate &amp; Environment and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>07</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>24</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Chris Smith et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-5292/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-5292/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-5292/egusphere-2025-5292.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-5292/egusphere-2025-5292.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Future climate scenario projections are usually run with prescribed atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations. However, by not allowing the carbon cycle to interactively respond to emissions in Earth System models, the role of carbon cycle feedbacks on contributions to differences in climate model projections may be undersampled. Here, we present the main findings of two Earth System Models (MPI-ESM1.2-LR and NorESM2-LM) run with CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions to 2300 for three scenarios, two of which are climate overshoot scenarios, that were part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). These experiments serve three important purposes: (i) an increasing focus on emissions driven runs, supplementing scenarios produced for the Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle (C4MIP) and Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDRMIP) contributions to CMIP6; (ii) a focus on overshoot scenarios; and (iii) an extension of results beyond 2100, the timescales at which some of the most significant differences play out. Of the two models, NorESM2-LM shows more asymmetry in its response to the same global mean temperature levels before and after peak warming, particularly in terms of its regional pattern of warming and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) response, with a substantially weakened AMOC persisting for decades after peak warming that takes more than a century to recover. In contrast, MPI-ESM1.2-LR shows reversibility with AMOC strength and regional warming more closely following surface temperature, but with some climate signals such as sea-level rise and ocean deoxygenation essentially irreversible. This diversity in model responses highlights the need for further research with a larger model ensemble that focuses on long-term emissions-driven model runs, particularly for overshoot scenarios, for CMIP7.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="24"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>HORIZON EUROPE Climate, Energy and Mobility</funding-source>
<award-id>101081661</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
</back>
</article>