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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-51</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Future global water scarcity partially alleviated by vegetation responses to atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and climate change</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Stacey</surname>
<given-names>Jessica</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4452-491X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Betts</surname>
<given-names>Richard</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4929-0307</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hartley</surname>
<given-names>Andrew</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1905-9112</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mercado</surname>
<given-names>Lina</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4069-0838</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gedney</surname>
<given-names>Nicola</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2165-5239</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QJ, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Environment, Science &amp; Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QJ, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, EX10 8BB, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>07</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>32</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Jessica Stacey et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-51/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-51/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-51/egusphere-2025-51.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-51/egusphere-2025-51.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Accurate water scarcity projections are essential for effective adaptation strategies. Most existing studies rely on hydrology models that often neglect the effects of plant physiological responses to rising CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; on the water cycle , such as reduced stomatal opening, which can decrease transpiration and enhance water availability over large scales. Using a land surface model driven by an Earth system model under a high-emission climate scenario, we evaluate how physiological and structural plant responses to rising CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and subsequent climate change affect the Water Scarcity Index (WSI). Our simulations suggest that the combined effects of these plant responses partially alleviate WSI for most regions, largely due to CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;-induced stomatal closure. However, CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;- and climate-induced vegetation changes do exacerbate water scarcity in some places, particularly arid regions. By 2076&amp;ndash;2095, when incorporating all plant responses in our projections, global median WSI is approximately 12 % lower, and among 291 global river basins, median WSI is between 10 and 70 % lower in 138 basins, home to 80 % of the global population, and between 10 % and 60 % higher in 11 basins, home to 0.2 % of the population. These model results highlight the potential for plant responses to CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; to somewhat alleviate water scarcity, noting water scarcity is still projected to worsen in many regions, including highly populated areas. There is an urgent need to gather empirical evidence on the strength of plant responses to CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; at large scales to address modelling uncertainties.</p>
</abstract>
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