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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-4935</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>A data-driven U-Net model with residual structures and attention mechanisms for short-term prediction of Arctic sea ice concentration</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Liu</surname>
<given-names>Mingtao</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Guo</surname>
<given-names>Jinyun</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1817-1505</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sun</surname>
<given-names>Yu</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bian</surname>
<given-names>Shaofeng</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jia</surname>
<given-names>Yongjun</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Liu</surname>
<given-names>Xin</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>College of Geodesy and Geomatics, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Key Laboratory of Spatial Data Mining and Information Sharing of Ministry of Education, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350108, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>College of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>National Satellite Ocean Application Service, Beijing 100081, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>02</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>22</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Mingtao Liu et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-4935/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-4935/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-4935/egusphere-2025-4935.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-4935/egusphere-2025-4935.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Sea ice is vital in the global climate system, ecological balance and polar navigation. Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity and complex evolutionary patterns. In response to address these challenges, this study proposes a predictive model named sea ice concentration U-Net (SICUNet). SICUNet is a data-driven U-Net model that integrates attention mechanisms and residual structures for short-term prediction of SIC in the Arctic region. The model enhances the perception of multi-scale features through spatial-channel attention mechanisms. Meanwhile, it integrates residual structures to alleviate the vanishing gradient and improve training stability. SICUNet is trained and validated using SIC data from 1988 to 2020 and evaluated during the testing phase using data from 2021 to 2024. To accurately capture seasonal variations in SIC, each year is divided into a melting season and a freezing season. Model training and prediction are conducted separately for each season. The model input is a 448&amp;times;304 tensor with 7 channels built from daily SIC data over seven consecutive days. It then predicts SIC for the subsequent 7 days. SICUNet is trained and validated based on this input-output structure, and further applied to recursive prediction of SIC. During the 2021&amp;ndash;2024 testing period, SICUNet effectively predicts SIC for the upcoming 7 days and maintains stable and accurate performance across multiple recursive steps. It outperforms traditional U-Net, U&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;Net and numerical simulation methods, showing robust results under extreme SIC conditions.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="22"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Natural Science Foundation of China</funding-source>
<award-id>42430101</award-id>
<award-id>42274006</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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