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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-4837</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Seismic and Tsunami Hazard Potential of the Negros&amp;ndash;Sulu Megathrust, Philippines</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Nawanao Jr.</surname>
<given-names>Lyndon P.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ramos</surname>
<given-names>Noelynna T.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Baba</surname>
<given-names>Toshitaka</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chikasada</surname>
<given-names>Naotaka</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Satake</surname>
<given-names>Kenji</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>National Institute of Geological Sciences, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City, 1101, Philippines</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Graduate School of Science and Technology, Tokushima University, Tokushima, Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Tsukuba, Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan, Taiwan</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>02</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>32</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Lyndon P. Nawanao Jr. et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-4837/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-4837/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-4837/egusphere-2025-4837.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-4837/egusphere-2025-4837.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The Negros&amp;ndash;Sulu megathrust poses an imminent threat to coastal communities surrounding the Sulu Sea, but with limited information on past tsunamis, megathrust geometry, and locked segments, robust seismic and tsunami hazard assessments are hindered. To identify highly exposed coastal areas amid this knowledge gap, we estimated the Negros&amp;ndash;Sulu megathrust source parameters using a structural-based segmentation and scaling-relation approach for tsunami modeling. A total of 18 sets of source parameters from six segments and three dip angle scenarios were considered with moment magnitude and average slip of Mw 8.0&amp;ndash;8.9 and 1.68&amp;ndash;6.23 m, respectively. Tsunami simulations were modeled in JAGURS, accounting for nonlinear shallow water equations, horizontal and vertical seafloor displacements, and Boussinesq dispersion effects. Coastal regions directly facing the segments have the highest exposures with &amp;lt;2 min arrival times, highlighting the major control of wave directivity and the need for rapid evacuation strategies. The Negros Trench generates up to 6 m wave height and 7 m/s flow velocity, while the Sulu Trench up to 8 m and 6 m/s. Coastal areas with &amp;ge;2 m wave heights typically exhibit a concave morphology with a nearshore width interquartile range of 2&amp;ndash;4.5 km. At wider nearshore width (&amp;gt;20 km), wave dissipation results in lower wave heights (&amp;lt;2 m) that underscore accurate nearshore bathymetry in tsunami modeling. This study provides exposure maps of the maximum wave height, flow velocity, and minimum arrival times from rupture scenarios for searching paleotsunami deposits and most importantly for policymakers, local government, and coastal communities to mitigate tsunami hazard risk.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Department of Science and Technology, Philippines</funding-source>
<award-id>4233</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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